20180921【充实计划】第836期

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9月第21天
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：
《爱上统计学》的数据，包括了EXCEL和SPSS两类数据
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-2643447-1-1.html


2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天继续读：《一个投资家的20年》
有人夸我文章好
……
      有一种成功叫犯错，有一种赞赏叫沉默。
2009年4月20日
      亲爱的《钱经》的读者朋友们，又是一年春花烂漫的时节，也是这个专栏2周年的时候。在过去的24个月中，我们经历了6个月的牛市、18个月的熊市，而且是带来史无前例灾难的巨熊。
……
      专栏的数字显示无论在牛市还是在熊市，我们都战胜了不同市场的所有指数，在所有的时间段战胜所有的指数，这是个难得的纪录，不见得能重来。
      总结过去，基本上是不断犯错的历史，专栏曾经在24美元买的花旗，最终跌到1美元；曾经90美元买的贝尔斯登最终奇迹般地消失；曾经26港元仍持有的中国铝业，最终跌到1港元；曾经持有一年都不涨的网易，却在卖出后的次日莫名地大升，如此等难以尽数，甚至当初开立这个专栏也是个错误，运气之差还表现在当设定人民币为结算货币后，经历了其30年来最迅猛的升值。但无论如何，从专业角度我们最终还是保持了前一年度的优势，并进一步拉大距离。
      在过去的一年中，不断有人夸奖我文章写得好，些许不好意思说：“你也没有抄到底嘛。”或许更多具有善意的读者是不表示意见的沉默的大多数，这里我需要写下一句聊以自慰的话：有一种成功叫犯错，有一种赞赏叫沉默。
      投资是以寂寞和孤独为主的历程，还记得电影《梅兰芳》中邱如白的话吗：“谁毁了梅兰芳的孤独，谁就毁了梅兰芳。”多么残酷！如果寂寞的事业乐在其中还好，如果又寂寞又不喜欢，便是灾难。多半成功的人都有认为自己行业艰苦不易为的特点，做VC很成功的王功权就曾对我说：“我们这个行业太累了，最好别干。”勾起无数人浪漫记忆、以《再别康桥》而闻名的诗人徐志摩，在纪念林徽因的文章中却披露：若再重来，志摩宁愿不再做诗人。难怪李太白都有“古来圣贤皆寂寞”的慨叹。
      投资过程大体是搜集、研究、判断、执行、忍耐，再重复的过程，光芒四射的日子不太多。鉴于投资过程的无聊性，我们试图在小桥流水、渔舟唱晚般不经意中达到投资的目标，这便造成专栏文章中有关篇幅的风格。“躲进小楼成一统，管他冬夏与春秋”并不易，不但需要不抛弃、不放弃，还需要不被抛弃、不被放弃，有些事情由不得自己。即便我们通过不断学习，而知道景气循环，如同知道冬天再寒冷春天也会来一样，即便我们的精神可以穿越眼前的迷茫，而窥见未来的锦绣美好，我们沉重的肉身仍然要留在此刻的时空，历经必要的磨难。
      大家一定想知道我们是否胜利在望？这让人想起毛主席曾经对于中国革命的描述：“……是站在海岸遥望海中已经看得见桅杆尖头了的一只航船，它是立于高山之巅远看东方已见光芒四射、喷薄欲出的一轮朝日。”历史同时还告诉我们，在写下上述话语的19年之后，最终的胜利才真正到来。
      春天来了，去年的樱花再次盛开，窗外是一株大大的樱花树，一束束粉色的花朵竞相地开着。早晨起来，窗外透过繁花，印着清澈蓝天的背景，刚刚割过的草地散发出清新的青草的味道。坐在窗下，翻阅巴菲特的传记《滚雪球》，在扉页写下：“我们的雪道是中国，我们的雪球是中国的优秀企业，我对此坚信不移！”
      我们还能胜出吗？希望可以看得见。当然这一切至少需要两个前提：第一，我还在；第二，《钱经》还在。排名不分先后。
…...

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
      做为一种生活方式，大多数的过程都和投资一样无聊。即使是象唱歌这样的“美事”，如果是做为一种生活的基本要素，也需要每天无聊地训练。所谓“台上一分钟，台下十年功”说的就是。“躲进小楼成一纺，管他冬夏与春秋”不是不易做到，而是不易坚持常年做到，尤其是在不断的诱惑面前，尤其是面对不断地被亲朋抛弃的漫长岁月中，我们还能心态平和地“投资”
      …...

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人生职场道路起起伏伏，领导们各领风骚三五年。
该低头时得低调。 48 Laws of power 摘要

Law 22 Use the Surrender Tactic: Transform weakness Into Power

Judgment: When you are weaker, never fight for honor’s sake; choose surrender instead. Surrender gives you time to recover, time to torment and irritate your conqueror, time to wait for his power to wane. Do not give him the satisfaction of fighting and defeating you—surrender first. By turning the other cheek you infuriate and unsettle him. Make surrender a tool of power.
“The standard of justice depends on the equality of power to compel, and that in fact the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.” When you are weaker, there is nothing to be gained by fighting a useless fight. No one comes to help the weak—by doing so they would only put themselves in jeopardy. The weak are alone and must submit. Fighting gives you nothing to gain but martyrdom, and in the process a lot of people who do not believe in your cause will die.
Weakness is no sin, and can even become strength if you learn how to play it right. Fortunes change and the mighty are often brought down. Surrender conceals great power: Lulling the enemy into complacency, it gives you time to recoup, time to undermine, time for revenge. Never sacrifice that time in exchange for honor in a battle that you cannot win.
“Weak people never give way when they ought to.”
Keep in mind the following: People trying to make a show of their authority are easily deceived by the surrender tactic. Your outward sigh of submission makes them feel important; satisfied that you respect them, they become easier targets for a later counterattack, or for the kind of indirect ridicule used by Brecht. Measuring your power over time, never sacrifice long-term maneuverability for the short-lived glories of martyrdom.
“When the great lord passes, the wise peasant bows deeply and silently farts.”
What gets us into trouble in the realm of power is often our own overreaction to the moves of our enemies and rivals. That overreaction creates problems we would have avoided had we been more reasonable. It also has an endless rebound effect, for the enemy then overreacts as well, much as the Athenians did to the Melians. It is always our first instinct to react, to meet aggression with some other kind of aggression. But the next time someone pushes you and you find yourself starting to react, try this: Do not resist or fight back, but yield, turn the other cheek bend. You will find that this often neutralizes their behavior—they expected, even wanted you to react with force and so they are caught off-guard and confounded by your lack of resistance. By yielding, you in fact control the situation , because your surrender is part of a larger plan to lull then into believing they have defeated you.
This is the essence of the surrender tactic: Inwardly you stay firm, but outwardly you bend. Deprived of a reason to get angry, your opponents will often be bewildered instead. And they are unlikely to react with more violence, which would demand a reaction from you. Instead you are allowed the time and space to plot the countermoves that will bring them down. In the battle of the intelligent against the brutal and the aggressive, the surrender tactic is the supreme weapon. It does require self-control: Those who genuinely surrender give up their freedom, and may be crushed by the humiliation of their defeat. You have to remember that you only appear to surrender, like the animal that plays dead to save its hide.
We have seen that it can be better to surrender than to fight; faced with a more powerful opponent and a sure defeat, it is often also better to surrender than to run away. Running away may save you for the time being, but the aggressor will eventually catch up with you. If you surrender instead, you have an opportunity to coil around your enemy and strike with your fangs from close up.
Surrender can also offer a way of mocking your enemies, of turning their power against them, as it did for Brecht.
Power is always in flux—since the game is by nature fluid, and an arena of constant struggle, those with power almost always find themselves eventually on the downward swing. If you find yourself temporarily weakened, the surrender tactic is perfect for raising yourself up again—it disguises your ambition; it teaches you patience and self-control, key skills in the game and it puts you in the best possible position for taking advantage of your oppressor’s sudden slide. If you run away or fight back, in the long run you cannot win. If you surrender, you will almost always emerge victorious.
Image: An Oak Tree. The oak that resists the wind loses its branches on by one, and with nothing left to protect it, the trunk finally snaps. The oak that bends lives longer, its trunk growing wider, its roots deeper and more tenacious.
Authority:” You have heard that it hath been said, an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth: But I say unto you, that ye resist not evil: but whosoever shall smite thee on thy right cheek, turn to him the other also. And if any man will sue thee at the law, and take away thy coat, let them have thy cloak also. And whosoever shall compel thee to go a mile, go with him twain.”
The point of surrendering is to save your hide for a later date when you can reassert yourself. When power deserts you, it is best to ignore this Law’s reversal. Leave martyrdom alone: The pendulum will swing back your way eventually, and you should stay alive to see it.

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