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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国网络娱乐行业展望
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：50
【目录或简介】：
Summary: In this report, we outline our thesis for the entertainment group in
2010 and provide a preview of CY4Q09 earnings. After outperforming the
S&P in 2009, we expect the sector to perform in line with the broader market
and that relative performance will be driven by a return to more traditional
fundamental analysis (as opposed to reversion to the mean in '09).
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Differentiation: We expect the sector in 2010 will be marked by 5 themes:
1) a slow ad recovery as advertising is late cycle, 2) continued pressure from
secular issues (digitization of media and declining DVD market), 3) modest
operating leverage given that OPEX was reduced 4% on avg. in '09 to
preserve margins 4) reduced acquisition risk given the mini-consolidation
phase in 2009, and 5) a regulatory environment that bears watching.
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Stock Calls: We still view TWX (OP, $35 target) as attractive from an
offensive (18% EPS growth in '10) and defensive (below avg. ad exposure)
perspective. We rate DIS OP and think a strong upcoming content cycle,
anticipation of a cyclical Park recovery in FY11, and improved perceptions
about the Marvel deal will serve as positive catalysts. We are raising our
price target for DIS to $36 (16x P/E on our 2011 EPS est of $2.23) from $21.
We maintain our Neutral on News Corp., although we note current trends
are better than expected, driven by Avatar’s box office success, solid Fox
ratings and signs of a local ad recovery. Long term, we remain concerned
about News’ exposure to print and broadcast TV and its spotty capital
allocation track record. We are raising our price target on News Corp. from
$11 to $14.50 to reflect higher operating assumptions. Although Viacom's
valuation is not demanding, we maintain our Neutral due to our concerns
about earnings quality, the sustainability of further cable margin
improvement, and continued ratings issues.
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