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【出版时间及名称】：2010年印尼水泥行业前景展望
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：43
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
The stage is set for positive momentum................................3
Robust demand outlook ..........................................................4
Positive momentum likely in 2010 ..............................................................................4
Higher-than-trend growth likely in FY10E-11E..........................................................4
Drivers for higher long-term demand are falling into place.........................................6
Supply dynamics......................................................................8
Supply growth slower than demand.............................................................................8
Strong pricing power should not be under threat .........................................................9
Industry structure and regional dynamics ...........................12
The Big Three ............................................................................................................12
Stable market share: Little reason to disrupt pricing?................................................13
Regional dynamics: Java’s dominance is declining...................................................13
SMGR has the best geographical spread....................................................................14
Barriers for entry and imports....................................................................................14
Financial analysis...................................................................15
Sensitivity to energy costs .........................................................................................15
Sensitivity to pricing and volume ..............................................................................15
Valuation .................................................................................16
Positive on the cement sector.....................................................................................16
Risks to our thesis .................................................................19
Downside risks to our sector call ...............................................................................19
Upside risks to our sector call....................................................................................20
Companies
Semen Gresik.............................................................................................................22
Indocement ................................................................................................................32
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