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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国半导体组件行业前景展望
【作者】：OPPENHEIMER
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
2010 Industry Preview
Cycle Not Dead, but No Spring Chicken
SUMMARY
Semis led the market higher in 2009, with the group finishing up nearly 90% since
March inflection—well ahead of the S&P and NASDAQ, up 66% and 78%,
respectively. Despite a still improving outlook, we believe the 'easy' early cycle
money has been made. We view semiconductors as a market weight sector for
2010 as we move into the middle innings of the cycle and lagging tech segments
play catch-up. Contrary to many of our peers, we are still constructive on the group
for 2010. Channel inventories remain lean and demand steady, GDP is improving,
PC is poised for another year of outperformance driven by a resurgent enterprise
spend and lagging verticals like Wireline and Industrial are poised for inflection. We
believe this year will likely be a stock-picker's market in semis with several quality
names positioned to outperform. Our top picks are those names
misunderstood/mispriced by the market where top-line and GM are likely to outpace
peers to deliver EPS upside. These names include INTC, NVDA, ISIL, ATHR,
MRVL and NETL.
KEY POINTS
n We have remained consistent in our expectation for the majority of our names to
upside 4Q and guide 1Q ahead of seasonality. With the group rallying 16% in
the closing weeks of '09 this view now appears to be consensus. PC, Consumer
and Handset verticals are tracking at or above seasonal patterns while '09
laggards Industrial, Wireline and Enterprise are showing signs of rebound.
n Management tone remains confident for most as we enter 2010. Corporate
profits are on the upswing and we look for IT spending to recover from 2009's
5-10% drop. In PC, our recent checks show continued positive ODM
commentary regarding PC sell-through and inventories. Windows 7, overdue
NB/DT replacement and improving enterprise spend—particularly in
2H10—bolster the outlook for PC and our view that 2010 unit growth could top
14%.
n Fears of an inventory build have thus far proven overblown. Channel inventories
remain historically low having actually dropped Q/Q in 2Q and 3Q when
seasonality normally dictates inventory increases. Holiday demand, consistent
with back-to-school (US) and Golden Week (China) trends, came in line to
slightly better than expectations. Lean inventories and consistent demand
positions the group for a better than seasonal 1Q.
n With significantly raised expectations heading into 4Q earnings, we question the
sustainability of the recent semi rally. We continue to see a positive bias to
estimates for the majority of the group and would use pull-backs as an
opportunity. Stock picking will be key in 2010 and we favor those quality names
with stand-out growth/GM profiles best positioned to 'win in 2010.' Our favorites
include INTC, NVDA, ISIL, ATHR, MRVL and NETL.
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