2010年英国航空与军工行业前景展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年英国航空与军工行业前景展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：73
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
Sector positioning for 2010 .............................................................. 4
Increase commercial aero weighting through short cycle names.............................................4
Certain valuation & restructuring opportunities remain in defence ...........................................4
Valuation & Risks ......................................................................................................................4
What’s changed in our 2010 outlook?.............................................. 5
Aftermarket growth expectations raised for 2010 ....................................................................5
OE deliveries marginally raised, but material fall still expected.................................................5
Forecast & TP changes .............................................................................................................5
Air traffic prospects – a return to growth in 2010 .......................... 7
The industry will be pleased to put a bleak 2009 behind it .......................................................7
Outlook for air traffic in 2010 looks brighter led by GDP recovery............................................8
In conclusion – we see 5.5% air traffic growth emerging in 2010............................................9
Airline overcapacity - the key issue for 2010 deliveries ............... 10
Despite recovery in traffic, overcapacity remains a key concern ............................................10
Retirements unlikely to take up the overcapacity slack in 2010..............................................10
Aircraft utilisation rates likely to rise in 2010 – catering for much of the traffic growth ..........11
Overcapacity set to emerge unless Airbus & Boeing cut rates...............................................12
2010 will likely see further production rate cuts emerge ........................................................15
If OE cycle is flat this downturn….then will there be an upturn?............................................17
State of aircraft financing markets ................................................ 19
Aircraft financing likely to be less of a limiting factor in 2010 .................................................19
Available financing options......................................................................................................19
Ongoing ECAs/ExIm bank support will be key in 2010 ...........................................................24
OEMs may have to step up level of vendor financing in 2010................................................25
Commercial aftermarket –a year of recovery in 2010................... 27
Conclusion – aftermarket should return to positive growth in 2010 in marked contrast to OE
...............................................................................................................................................30
US$ - from risk to reward?.............................................................. 31
US$ transaction sensitivity......................................................................................................32
Defence - uncertain outlook ........................................................... 34
FY-11 budget key in setting scene for US Defence spending.................................................34
European budgets: uncertain mid-term outlook......................................................................38
Is there any place to hide in Defence?....................................................................................40
All Defence companies will vie for Defence export contacts .................................................41
Consolidation issues ....................................................................... 43
European industry: little scope for further consolidation.........................................................43
M&A deals will likely focus on Tier1 & 2 supplier base ..........................................................44
Inflation risks assessed ................................................................... 45
Defence looks relatively secure against inflation ....................................................................45
Inflation may represent a greater risk for Commercial stocks.................................................46
Valuation issues............................................................................... 47
Commercial Aerospace multiples likely to at least track broader market multiples ................47
When to buy into OE recovery? ..............................................................................................49
Defence: scope for further de-rating limited ...........................................................................50
Margin vs. EV/sales: highlights some clear anomalies............................................................52
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................53
Table of Contents (Cont'd)
Companies ....................................................................................... 56
BAE SYSTEMS (Buy, TP 435p) – Growth fears more than priced ...........................................56
Boeing (Hold, TP $51) – Concern over deferrals could rise in Q1 ...........................................57
Cobham (Hold, TP 245p) – High quality growth….but priced in..............................................58
EADS (Hold, TP E12.5) – Still too early to buy into OE recovery .............................................59
Finmeccanica (Hold, TP E11.5) – Fairly valued ........................................................................60
Meggitt (Buy, TP 285p) – Compelling aftermarket play...........................................................61
MTU (Buy, TP E50) – Cheap aftermarket recovery..................................................................62
Rolls-Royce (Hold, TP 455p) – Aftermarket focus more than priced .......................................63
Safran (Buy, TP E17) – Increasing aftermarket appeals...........................................................64
Thales (Buy, TP E45) – Turnaround story is well on track........................................................65
Ultra Electronics (Hold, TP 1300p) – Defensive quality fully priced.........................................66
VT Group (Hold, TP 595p) – Balance sheet deployment will be key........................................67
ZODIAC (Hold, TP E28) – Earnings recovery already priced in ................................................68

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