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20190206【充实计划】第974期   [推广有奖]

wimming_lee 发表于 2019-2-6 11:53:59 来自手机 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-6 07:04
【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】
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昨日阅读:5h<br>
累积阅读:9h<br>
昨日读完了香帅的《金钱永不眠》,发现很多内容是和《经济的律动》互补的。比如,后者只提了泛亚事件和光大乌龙指一句,读的时候并不知道经过,而前者却把这两个事件都说清楚了。<br>
认知升级的是:韩国对文化产业的改革不只是推广了韩国的文化和时尚,还带动了其它产业的发展。<br>
印象最深的是:1.攀刚等三线建设产物的没落是由于没有把握住08年金融危机这一转机提前进行产业升级,而是靠刺激等要素推动继续苟且。2.浙江互保网络的断裂透露出想在人情社会中独善其身的难度。<br>

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sulight 学生认证  发表于 2019-2-6 12:34:31 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群


今天学习和阅读约5小时,累计阅读约1700小时。
学习和投资心得:

理想的投资标的之ETF基金:ETF就是可以在场内交易的指数,就是拟合指数的一篮子股票。和普通的开放式基金相比,ETF的优势一是仓位高(ETF股票仓位最高可达99%),拟合指数更加精准;二是既可以申购赎回,也可以在场内交易。这样ETF的玩法就更丰富一些。除了传统的长期持有、资产配置策略之外,ETF还可以做日内交易和套利交易策略。此外和股指期货、期权等业务相结合,部分ETF(如上证50)还可以实现风险对冲功能。总之,ETF给投资者提供了资产管理的工具。虽然无法提供获利保证,但通过ETF投资者可以轻松完成资产配置,以简单的金融工具达到投资组合分散的结果。基金销售有个非常有趣的现象:市场行情好时,主动管理型基金卖的越好;而市场行情差,指数基金才能卖的好。像今年指数基金就迎来了爆发式增长。以ETF为例,过去14年全行业ETF的保有量只做了2100亿,而今年一年就增加了1500亿,特别是最近三四个月资金净流入较多。以华夏上证50ETF为例,最近三个多月实际净流入近200亿。而主动管理型基金现在营销非常困难,基本卖不动。对于这个困惑,找到了答案。指数基金主要是以机构投资者为主。机构投资者一般只在市场低位进行布局,并且在左侧就开始交易。而散户很少有做到这一点的,散户一般在确认反弹、有赚钱效应之后才开始跟进。而主动管理型基金持有人结构中,一般散户占比较大,这就不难解释上述现象了。但现在个人投资者比过去也要理性很多了,现在有越来越多的个人投资者像机构那样使用指数基金在低位进行布局。像华夏上证50今年的增量资金就是有将近40%是来至个人投资者,这在过去都是不敢想象的。现在各类ETF,各家的费率基本都差不多,跟踪误差相差也不大(有一定的差别,但对资金量较小的散户而言,影响不是很大)。在ETF的选择上主要就是“两看”:一看规模,二看交易活跃程度。和主动管理型基金不同,指数基金是“以胖为美”。因为指数基金的规模越大,资金申购赎回的冲击就越小,跟踪差就越小。同样是1个亿资金的申购量,如果基金的规模只有20亿,占比就达到了5%。如果规模有100亿,申购资金的占比就只有1%,冲击要小很多。而交易活跃程度直接影响到流动性。所以ETF的规模和流动性具有“头部效应”,强者恒强。在这方面,作为国内ETF的先行者,优势比较明显。目前华夏基金拥有上证50、沪深300、中小板、中证500等12只股票型ETF,产品线比较齐全,基本覆盖了主流宽基指数。其中上证50、中小板、恒生指数ETF都是跟踪该指数规模最大、流动性最好的ETF,龙头特征明显。沪深300ETF、港股通ETF规模居第二位,流动性相对较好,具有龙头优势。中证500ETF规模居于第四位。MSCI中国A股ETF、战略新兴ETF、金融地产ETF都是比较稀缺的标的。此外,在目前炙热可手的SMART BETA领域华夏基金也有布局,目前已拥有华夏50AH优选(LOF)和华夏智胜成长两只股票型基金。机构在ETF的赎回方面有没有什么规律,ETF的申购赎回的数据能否作为研判市场行情的参考?经现场各位讨论,最终得出结论认为:机构如果是在市场底部进去的话,一般上涨获利达到20%左右的时候,出于风险控制的考虑,可能会出来一些。但后面进行了充分的调整之后,他可能又会进去,这样来来回回的做。至于ETF的申赎,这些都是公开的数据。他认为单日数据意义不大,因为有的进,有的出,而且都是进进出出。要参考的话,某一段时间之内的数据参考价值要更高一些。比如前面说的最近三四个月ETF大幅净流入,就可以解读为机构资金布局的信号。
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escaflowne1985 在职认证  发表于 2019-2-6 12:52:23 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
不知道你想说什么

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hifinecon 发表于 2019-2-6 13:42:38 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨天閱讀1小時,累計閱讀330小時。
昨天學習了新古典經濟學,亞當·斯密斯認為價值來源於生產成本,但是一瓶售價300英鎊的香檳其生產成本要遠低於其價格本身。它之所以售價高昂是得益於消費者的青睞,迄今為止,我們聽到更多的是關於富有的資本家和在工廠裡做苦工的工人的討論。但是那些購買商品的人呢?消費者通過消費商品獲得滿足,因此這對我們如何理解經濟運作難道不也是具有重要意義?英國經濟學家威廉姆·傑文斯(William Jevons)是研究消費者在經濟活動中的角色的第一位經濟學家。他提出“邊際效用”(marginal utility)理論,邊際效用是經濟學中最為重要的一個思想,傑文斯通過它闡釋人們的消費行為。19世紀晚期,這種使用邊際原則的推理為整個經濟學的研究方法奠定了新的基礎,今天更成為經濟學家們普遍使用的基本方法。傑文斯沒有完成全部理論便去世了,但經濟學家艾爾弗雷德·馬歇爾(Alfred Marshall)繼續深化了他的理論,邊際效用理論迄今仍是經濟學專業學生入學必修的理論。馬歇爾的觀點之一就是需求法則,產品的高價格導致需求走低,而低價格導致需求提升,邊際原則不僅用來描述人們的消費行為,還可以闡述企業的行為。如果銷售湯匙獲得的額外收入(邊際收入)高於製作湯匙本身的成本(邊際成本),企業便會生產另一種湯匙。隨著湯匙產量的增加,每多生產一個湯匙的生產成本便會增加。只有當湯匙的價格高到足夠抵消高昂的成本時,工廠才會生產大量的湯匙。因此,工廠的供給量和價格高低是成正比的。馬歇爾用供給和需求的理論將消費者和企業聯結起來,這個觀點成為經濟學中最為著名的理論之一。“需求曲線”(demand curve)將價格和人們需要的數量聯繫起來。當對湯匙的需求和供給完全相等時——需求和供給曲線相交時,市場便達到了平衡(即均衡)。平衡是市場想要達到的狀態。當價格達到一個特定的水平時便會產生平衡:這時企業希望生產的湯匙數量和消費者需要購買的數量是一致的。
亞當·斯密斯對於競爭的觀點非常著迷,馬歇爾和他的同行將其發展為一個模型,認為競爭的重點在於買家或賣家都無法操縱市場,在斯密斯的競爭論中,商人們通過討價還價和兜售實現利潤最大化,而馬爾薩斯的窮人們拼命生孩子,馬歇爾則認為人是理性的,會衡量邊際成本和邊際效用後決定自己行為。馬歇爾的經濟學被稱為新古典經濟學:它是斯密斯和李嘉圖經濟學的升級版。古典經濟學關注市場如何掌控經濟並使其繁榮,新古典經濟學關注的是理性的個人如何掌控市場。
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XA0 学生认证  发表于 2019-2-6 13:59:54 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
1、今天继续听了《幸福课-第三课》——1.5小时。
https://open.163.com/movie/2006/1/6/P/M6HV755O6_M6HV8FJ6P.html
2、阅读《Your statistical consulting》25页——1小时
3、整理英文单词——0.5小时
4、摘抄并阅读充实挑战“了解雀巢”——0.5小时

共计3.5小时,累计15.5小时
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充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-6 14:01:11 来自手机 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
给“电子烟”这个风口泼点冷水

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8PRxTR9iD1tYLIO1GxAF-Q

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amtw14 发表于 2019-2-6 14:31:53 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读1136小时。
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阅读2个小时,累积阅读22个小时。

在现代社会,国债与货币的差异有哪些?第一,从持有者的角度而言,普通公众既是国债的持有者,也是货币的持有者。从发行人的角度而言,国债的发行者是中央ZF或联邦ZF;货币的发行者是以银行为主导的金融机构。国债和信用货币都体现了持有者和发行者之间的债权和债务关系。

第二,从支付利息的角度而言,国债和货币的差异不是很显著。国债需要支付利息,而由商业银行衍生出来的货币,即存款货币也是要支付利息的。

第三,从面额而言,国债的面额一般较大,央行发行的货币面额相对比较小。

第四,从流动性而言,不同期限的国债有不同的流动性,短期国债的流动性高于长期国债的流动性。央行发行的流动性较高,而商业银行发行的流动性较低,尤其是长期的货币。

不论是短期还是长期国债,即使其流动性再高,即使其无利息支付,也不能视为货币。这是因为货币的一项功能是偿还债务,这往往是被货币定义中忽视的一点。
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ccwwccww 发表于 2019-2-6 14:43:02 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨天阅读1小时,总计984小时
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edmcheng 发表于 2019-2-6 14:51:51 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间107小时
Invest Like a Guru – How to generate higher returns at reduced risk with value investing 2017(Charlie Tian)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6755810-1-1.html (Page 102-114)
Buy Good Companies: The Checklist

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Every investor should create his or her own investing checklist, no matter how he or she chooses to invest. As discussed extensively in his bestselling book, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right,1 Atul Gawande wrote that checklists have been widely used in the medical and aviation industries because they simplify complex procedures and help doctors and pilots maintain their composure and discipline. When US Airways Flight 1549 from LaGuardia Airport to Charlotte hit a large flock of birds and lost both of its engines, the first thing pilot Sully Sullenberger and his crew did was get out their checklists, according to Sullenberger’s memoir, Highest Duty: My Search for What Really Matters.2 Humans being human, mistakes will inevitably occur. Checklist usage catches the errors, sets discipline and process, and helps avoid potential losses. Hedge fund manager Mohnish Pabrai likens buying a stock to the takeoff of an airplane. Many successful investors have their own checklists to guide their investment processes, although they might not explicitly call them such. For example, Walter Schloss, the notable disciple of Benjamin Graham, averaged 15.3 percent compound return over the course of four and a half decades, versus 10 percent for the S&P 500, and followed his own 16 rules of investing, which cover valuation, discipline, conviction, and leverage.3 Philip Fisher, the father of growth investing, always asks himself 15 questions about the company he is interested in buying. He detailed these 15 questions in his book, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, and they cover the areas of market potential, management, the effectiveness of research and development, profit margin, labor relations, and share buybacks. Peter Lynch has a long list of questions he asks about each company, which can be different depending on the specific company situation.
Summarized the questions are:  
1. Do I understand the business?
2. What is the economic moat that protects the company so it can sell the same or a similar product five or ten years from today?
3. Is this a fast-changing industry?
4. Does the company have a diversified customer base?
5. Is this an asset-light business?
6. Is it a cyclical business?
7. Does the company still have room to grow?
8. Has the company been consistently profitable over the past
ten years, through good times and bad?
9. Does the company have a stable double-digit operating
margin?
10. Does the company have a higher margin than competitors?
11. Does the company have a return on investment capital of
15 percent or higher over the past decade?
12. Has the company been consistently growing its revenue and
earnings at double digits?
13. Does the company have a strong balance sheet?
14. Do company executives own decent shares of stock of the company?
15. How are the executives paid compared with other similarly sized companies?
16. Are insiders buying?
17. Is the stock valuation reasonable as measured by intrinsic value, or P/E ratio?
18. How is the current valuation relative to historical range?
19. How did the company’s stock price fare during the previous recessions?
20. How much confidence do I have in my research?
Moreover, GuruFocus developed a feature called Warning Signs, which undertakes a thorough inspection on the financial health and performance of companies. These warning signs are highlighted for each company. The purpose of Warning Signs is to advise you of red flags in certain areas of the company that you may have overlooked. These warning signs do not necessarily mean you should avoid buying the stock, but you should be aware of and accept them before you invest.
The Warning Signs checkup covers these areas:
1.        Profitability rank
2.        Revenue, earnings growth rate of ten-year, five-year, three-year, and
one-year periods
3.        Operating losses/Gross margin growth, operating margin growth
4.        Asset growth faster than revenue growth
5.        Days sales outstanding/Days sales of inventory
6.        Owner earnings diverged from reported earnings
7.        Divergence between net income and free cash flow
8.        Cost of capital higher than the return on invested capital
9.        Issuance of new shares
10.        Altman Z-Score/Piotroski F-Score
11.        Beneish M-Score/Sloan ratio
12.        Interest coverage, Dividend payout ratio
13.        Short percentage of float
14.        Valuation ratios P/E, P/B, P/S relative to historical range
15.        Higher forward P/E
16.        Buyback track records
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Not all share buybacks are created equal, as pointed out by Buffett. Share buyback is valuable only if the company buys back its shares at below the intrinsic value of the stocks. If a company buys back at above the stock’s intrinsic value, it destroys value for the remaining shareholders over the long term. This is why Buffett set a threshold for the share buyback at Berkshire Hathaway, which is 1.2 times the book value of the shares. Mutual would have been in a much better position had it kept the cash on its balance sheet. Sears spent close to $5 billion buying back shares from 2006 to 2013. Now it has to borrow money to support its continuing struggle. Its market cap is less than one-fifth of what it spent on buybacks. The buyback benefited only those who sold out at the time. The remaining shareholders were left holding the bag.
If a company is raising dividends, it means that the company is confident in its profitability. It is a positive sign. But as with share buybacks, paying dividends weakens the balance sheet of the company. Investors need to think about its effect over the long term. Paying down debt is always good for a company to do, although it may reduce return on equity as the company is now less leveraged. The only reason insiders are buying their own company’s shares is because they think they will go up, as Lynch pointed out. Academic studies also found that insiders are mostly long-term value investors. They buy their own company stocks when they think their companies are favorable as long-term investments.
The checklist is a useful tool for investors to discipline their stock picking. The warning signs and positive signs can help investors gain a deeper understanding of the company and build the confidence necessary to direct their future actions. Lynch once suggested that investors write a note for every stock they research and buy, then compare the company’s business performance with these notes over time to see if the original investment thesis still holds.14 The checklist, warning signs, and positive signs explained in this chapter should also be included in the research notes. With all these procedures, we hope to reduce errors and failures and avoid the value traps that ensnare many value investors.
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