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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国半导体行业前景展望
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：154
【目录或简介】：
2010 Outlook and 4Q Preview
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Bottom Line. We remain bullish on the Semiconductor Cycle and reiterate our
12 month price target on the SOX Index of 500, or 36% appreciation from current
levels. Slowing supply growth cyclically (2009 capex 50% below trend) and
structurally (slowing wafer start growth post 300 mm transition), should lead to
sustainably higher utilization, relative pricing, and a redistribution of supply chain
inventory burden. Our 2010 industry forecast of 21% could be wrong and too low
by 400-800 bps, and is still 600 bps ahead of bottom's up street consensus.
Focus on PCs, Memory, and Smartphones with our Outperform ratings being
INTC, MU, BRCM, MRVL, LLTC, MCHP, ONNN, and AVGO.
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2010 Revenue Estimate. We believe the semiconductor industry is on track to
grow 21% in 2010, vs. current street estimates of 15%. Underlying our 2010
forecast is normal seasonal growth rates bolstered by inventory restocking back
to 3Q08 levels. Potential upside (400-800 bps) to our forecast would come from
better pricing and a redistribution of the inventory burden downstream. We
believe the gap between our top's down and bottom's up estimates provides a
beat & raise environment over the next several quarters. Memory & MPUs are
growing faster than industry growth rates, Analog, MCUs and Comm ICs are
growing in-line to below.
■
Where We Differ from Consensus. Focus on capex. Cyclically, the industry
exited 2009 50% below trend-line spending; even with a 50% increase in 2010,
capex would still be 40% below trend. Structurally, supply growth is set to slow
post 300 mm. There are two ways to add capacity – start more wafers, or shrink
to drive more units per wafer. The transition to 300mm drove an extended period
of accelerating square inches of wafer growth from 7.6% to 12.0%. We now
estimate several years of 5% wafer growth and a greater dependence on shrinks
to drive supply. Each successive shrink is inherently more capital intensive, i.e. it
is becoming more difficult for the semi industry to add capacity. Slowing supply
growth should lead to higher utilization, better pricing and a redistribution of
inventory – all helping to accelerate semi revenue.
■
Our Thoughts on Earnings. With 10 positive pre-announcements, 4Q
aggregate revenue estimates have been revised to 6.7% q/q growth, 40 bps
above normal seasonal. Despite upward revisions, we still feel as though the
industry is likely to have grown closer to 8-9% q/q in C4Q. For C1Q, street is
looking for 7.0% q/q decline, worse than normal seasonal of -4.0%. Recent
channel checks in Asia as well as at CES, would suggest that holiday sales were
robust and positive trends are persisting into C1Q. Expect 4Q/1Q to be a
beat/beat environment.
■
Valuation. With semis up 57% in 2009, many investors are worried that much of
the good news is priced in. Many are worried less about fundamentals than nearterm
price action. Our analysis would suggest that relative to (1) continued
upward revenue and EPS revisions and (2) our view that growth will continue
into 2011 - stocks still have 30-40% upside from current levels. Our SOX 500 call
is based upon an 18 P/E off of $28 EPS potential. Historically the SOX trades at
a 20% premium to peak earnings, and $28 EPS would represent a fully
leveraged 4Q10 potential run-rate - perhaps optimistic, but that's the point - we
are bullish on the cycle.
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