2010年1月欧洲人力资源行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月欧洲人力资源行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：100
        【目录或简介】：

We believe that the restocking-driven
growth rates will not be sustained
􀀗 Falling value per sale and gross margins,
lagging European markets, and SG&A
driven by volume all imply profit risk
􀀗 Reiterate UW on Adecco, UW(V) on
Randstad, Hays and MPI. SThree raised
to OW(V) for dividend and audacious
growth strategy. TP raised for Hays, MPI
and SThree
More blue collar than blue sky
Growth in the temp market is often rapid in the early months of
a recovery as inventory movements through the supply chain
and de-bottlenecking drive demand for blue collar temps.
Extrapolation of this growth has frequently led to overly
enthusiastic expectations for staffers. More sustained growth
stems from stretched capacity, and coincides with rising order
backlog. Given the large falls in labour productivity and in
capacity utilisation, the current strong growth in blue collar
temps is unlikely to be sustained, in our view. In addition, blue
collar temps are largely a low gross margin business, with
limited operational gearing. The value of sales (average wage
rate) falls with an increase in demand for lower-wage blue
collar temps, so sales revenues are frequently overestimated at
this point in the cycle. SG&A costs change in closer proportion
to the number of temps than to the value of sales, and so rise
faster than revenue. If we add to this the drag from European
exposure (where growth is slower due to structural spare
capacity in the labour market) the risk to the bull case (sales
growth over largely static costs) is material, in our view.
Higher-wage focussed staffers will experience a similar effect
as new recruitment/temping will shift to lower- wage roles. We
see little evidence that the white collar recovery will come
earlier than in previous cycles, outside of Asia.
SThree attractive, others not
Our 2010 EPS estimates are below consensus for Adecco
(-27%), Randstad (-22%), Hays (-32%), and MPI (-112%).
However, we are now in line with consensus for SThree, and
lift our rating to OW(V) from (N). Asian-driven margin
expansion is likely to fund an audacious 2010 capacity
expansion for 2011 growth. Such a strategy is not without
risk, but given the dividend yield less so for the investor.

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