2010年印度证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年印度证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

We expect Indian Equities to move ahead over 2010: We set a Dec 10
fair value target of 20,500 for the BSE Sensex (based on 16x FY12E) –
an upside potential of 17% from current levels. For foreign investors, we
expect forecast currency gains of 9% will supplement gains from the
equity markets. Current valuations at 16.5x FY11E should leave limited
room for re-rating and we expect broad market returns to be driven
mainly by earnings growth forecast. The growth outlook is healthy. We
estimate GDP growth of 7.8% and earnings growth of 24% for FY11E.
• But the ride is expected to be bumpy: Surging inflation and a
burgeoning fiscal deficit however present challenges for policy makers.
Monetary tightening and potential withdrawal of fiscal stimuli, expected
early in the year, will likely be potential speed breakers in the markets
ascent. Sustainable returns for equities could consequently be back
ended.
• Window of opportunity: From a policy perspective, the decisive
mandate in last years National Elections and a relatively light political
calendar in 2010 imply that the year ahead represents a solid opportunity
for the Government to take tough decisions required to tackle the fiscal
situation, purse reforms and kick start the investment cycle.
• Portfolio stance: Our key investment themes for 2010 are: a)
overweight the investment cycle; b) underweight the consumption cycle;
c) in financials, we prefer the private sector to state-owned banks; d) be
selective on global sectors.
• Key risk: A reversal in global liquidity: While the economy may be
relatively insulated to global growth, the financial markets are largely
dependent on external capital.

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