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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国银矿行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
Scarcity and utility
Silver starts 2010 on a strong note. Our analysis of the silver market leads us
to take a favorable view of investment demand in 2010. We believe silver
equities offer a compelling alternative to a portfolio of base and precious metals
stocks, introducing a tangible and transferrable asset that increases
diversification and offers leverage to the underlying. Silver prices outperformed
gold and platinum in 2009 by 49% and 16%, respectively, while compared to
copper and zinc, underperformed by 57% and 30%, respectively. We attribute
performance to a combination of factors including: (i) increased investment
demand; (ii) favorable movements in the gold price and exchange rates; and (iii)
a recovery in industrial demand.
Investor demand has been strong. Last year saw a 120Moz increase in silver
ETF holdings coupled with a 19Moz increase in net investor speculative
positions on COMEX. We look at the long-term performance of silver as
influenced by four key factors: (i) supply and demand fundamentals; (ii) silver’s
correlation and historical relationship to gold prices and the US Dollar; (iii)
silver’s correlation and historical relationship to industrial metals, namely,
copper, zinc, platinum; and (iv) investor demand, including ETF’s and COMEX.
Industrial demand and ETF’s the key focus in 2010. In our view, the silver
market will likely be dominated by the demand side of the equation in 2010, and
continued support from industrial demand and investment demand will play a
dominant role as a swing factor in our supply/demand balance. Secondary
supply of scrap will depend on the silver price but will likely decline to below
25% of mine supply as silver recovered from photographic waste declines. We
forecast an average silver price of $18.50/oz in 2010 and $20/oz in 2011. Our
long-term price forecast is $16/oz.
Silver producer valuations improving. Silver, more than its precious metals
partner gold, has significant industrial demand rooted in sectors such as
imaging, electronics, jewelry, coinage, superconductivity and water purification.
For this reason, we believe silver equities merit valuations as a precious and
industrial metal. We believe silver equities will trade at a P/NAV of 1-1.5x given
its close relationship with gold equities, which typically trade at 1.5-2x on P/NAV,
and base metals equities, which typically trade at 0.8-1.2x on P/NAV. Silver
equities are currently trading at 1.3x on P/NAV.
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