发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球铝行业研究报告
【作者】：加拿大皇家商业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：24
【目录或简介】：
Metal Prospects
Aluminium Market Outlook – Second Quarter 2010
Demand
• Global aluminium demand remains weak, supported almost solely by increased Chinese off
take. As the rate of growth of Chinese demand moderates, an increase in demand outside
China will be required to prevent renewed weakness in global demand. Global aluminium
demand declined by 3.5% in 2009. We forecast a rebound of 10.9% in 2010, 8.1% in 2011,
7.9% in 2012, and trend growth of 5.0% thereafter.
Supply
• In 2009, capacity utilization rates fell to levels not seen since the early 1980s, and we
expect the industry to struggle under the weight of significant excess capacity throughout
our forecast period. In 2009, global supply fell by 6.7%. We forecast growth of 9.6% in
2010, 8.6% in 2011, 6.9% in 2012, 5.2% in 2013, and 5.0% in 2014 to meet our forecast
demand growth, assuming continued producer discipline. However, at current price levels,
additional restarts and higher production levels are possible.
Market Balance and Inventories
• We estimate that the global aluminium market recorded a surplus of 597,000 tonnes in
2009. However, production curtailments combined with increased Chinese demand have
brought the market back into rough balance. The rebound in aluminium prices has triggered
the restart of Chinese capacity and, if sustained, could lead to restarts in the rest of the
world. If this continues, the market could move back into surplus. A forecast rebound in
demand in 2010 should result in a roughly balanced market and modestly lower inventories
measured in weeks of consumption. However, with more than enough excess capacity to
meet our forecast aluminium demand waiting to be restarted, we do not currently forecast a
meaningful absolute decline in inventories during our forecast period.
Price Forecasts
• The rebound in prices over the past 12 months has pushed the aluminium price above levels
we would expect based on the historical inventory price relationship. Investment funds
flows were a major contributor to the rally. While it is impossible to know how long
investment funds flows can remain the main price driver, when the fundamentals finally
reassert themselves our analysis suggests downside risk to $0.85/lb - $0.90/lb. We believe
prices will be constrained by excess inventories and capacity throughout our forecast
period. We forecast an average price of $0.90/lb in 2010, $0.85/lb in 2011, $0.85/lb in
2012, $0.90/lb in 2013 and $0.90/lb in 2014. Our long-term forecast is US$0.90/lb in 2010.
Risks to the Forecast
• Investment Demand – Investment demand has emerged as a key driver of commodity
prices over the past six months, leaving prices vulnerable to increased volatility. The
emergence of physical ETF’s could have a positive influence on prices.
• Economic Growth – Our forecast 2010 rebound is consistent with recoveries from
previous recessions. If the recovery in the developed world is more muted, any significant
improvement in the supply/demand balance could be delayed until 2011.
• China – A more muted recovery in Chinese demand than we are currently assuming could
delay a recovery until 2011. An end to the Chinese restocking process or withdrawal of
stimulus programs in the absence of a timely recovery in demand outside China could lead
to renewed demand weakness.
• Supply – The recent rally in aluminium prices, if sustained, could lead to further
production restarts and higher supply growth than we currently forecast.
Table of Contents
Supply/Demand Exhibit 1: Refined Aluminium Supply/Demand Balance...................................................3
Exhibit 2: Global Aluminium Supply/Demand ..................................................................3
Exhibit 3: Global Aluminium Supply/Demand and Prices.................................................3
Production Changes Exhibit 4: Summary of Aluminium Production Changes ..................................................4
Exhibit 5: Global Aluminium Production Increases ..........................................................4
Exhibit 6: Global Aluminium Production Increases from Potential Projects ....................5
Exhibit 7: Global Aluminium Production Decreases .........................................................5
Current Trends Exhibit 8: Aluminium Production (Monthly and 12-Month Moving Average)..................6
Exhibit 9: Aluminium Monthly Production........................................................................6
Exhibit 10: Aluminium Deliveries (Monthly and 12-Month Moving Average).................6
Exhibit 11: Aluminium Monthly Deliveries.......................................................................6
Exhibit 12: Smelter Capacity and Production (ex-China) .................................................. 6
Exhibit 13: Smelter Capacity Utilization (ex-China) and LME Price ................................6
Exhibit 14: World Aluminium Deliveries and Economic Growth......................................7
Exhibit 15: World Aluminium Deliveries ex-China and Economic Growth ......................7
Exhibit 15: World Aluminium Deliveries ex-China and Economic Growth ......................7
Exhibit 16: Physical Aluminium Premia ............................................................................7
Inventories and Price Exhibit 17: Total Aluminium Inventories versus Real Prices.............................................8
Exhibit 18: Total Aluminium Inventory, Price and Critical level.......................................8
Exhibit 19: Total Aluminium Inventories and Price...........................................................8
Exhibit 20: Aluminium Exchange Inventory and Price ...................................................... 9
Exhibit 21: Total Aluminium Inventory and LME Prices ..................................................9
Exhibit 22: Total Aluminium Inventory in Weeks of Consumption and Price.....................9
Consumption Exhibit 23: Primary Aluminium Consumption................................................................. 10
Exhibit 24: Primary Aluminium Consumption Patterns ...................................................10
Exhibit 25: Global Aluminium Consumption by Region ................................................. 11
Exhibit 26: Global Aluminium Consumption...................................................................11
Exhibit 27: Aluminium Consumption by Major Region ..................................................11
Capacity and Production Exhibit 28: Global Aluminium Capacity ..........................................................................12
Exhibit 29: Global Aluminium Smelter Capacity and Production....................................12
Exhibit 30: Global Aluminium Smelter Capacity Utilization...........................................12
Exhibit 31: Global Aluminium Production.......................................................................13
Exhibit 32: Global Aluminium Production Patterns.........................................................13
Aluminium Costs Exhibit 33: 2009E Aluminium Cash Costs (C1)...............................................................14
Exhibit 34: 2009E Aluminium Total Costs (C2) ..............................................................14
Exhibit 35: 2009E Aluminium Total Cost (C2) Components...........................................14
Exhibit 36: Aluminium Cash Cost Increases (2005-2009) ...............................................15
Exhibit 37: 2014E Aluminium Total Cost (C2)................................................................15
Exhibit 38: 2014E Aluminium Total Cost (C2) Components...........................................15
Alumina Exhibit 39: Alumina Supply/Demand Balance.................................................................16
Exhibit 40: Global Alumina Supply/Demand Balance and Prices....................................16
Exhibit 41: Alumina Production.......................................................................................17
Exhibit 42: Alumina Production by Region .....................................................................17
Exhibit 43: 2009 Alumina Production by Region.............................................................17
Alumina Costs Exhibit 44: 2010E Alumina Cash Costs (C1)...................................................................18
Exhibit 45: 2010E Alumina Total Costs (C2)...................................................................18
Exhibit 46: 2010E Alumina Cash Cost (C1) Components ...............................................18
Exhibit 47: Alumina Cost Increases (2005 – 2009)..........................................................19
Exhibit 48: 2015E Alumina Total Costs (C2)...................................................................19
Exhibit 49: 2015E Alumina Cash Cost (C1) Components ...............................................19
Appendix I: Projections for Aluminium Consumption...............................................20
Exhibit 50: Consumption Regressed with IP....................................................................20
Exhibit 51: Consumption Regressed and Against Time ...................................................20
Exhibit 52: Long-Term Growth Rates for Consumption (‘000 tonnes)............................20
Required Disclosures......................................................................................................21
Disclaimers .......................................................................................................................24
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
