2010年1月印度快速消费品行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月印度快速消费品行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：39
        【目录或简介】：
3Q results likely to be robust, but cost
inflation concerns may limit near-term
performance
􀀗 We remain bullish on the long-term
prospects on solid sales outlook, and
as margin concerns should abate
􀀗 We upgrade HUL to OW from N and
downgrade both Asian Paints and
Marico to Neutral from OW
Robust results, but stocks unlikely to move near term.
We expect robust 3Q FY10 sector results (sales growth of
14% and PAT growth of 22%), largely in line with
consensus except for Marico (9% above consensus) and
Asian Paints (9% below consensus). Despite strong earnings,
the sector’s short-term performance may be muted because
of margin concerns due to cost inflation.
Bullish on a 12-month view. We remain bullish on our
longer-term sector view, as we believe that (1) sales growth
will remain robust owing to higher incomes, government
spending, and overall economic growth, and (2) margin
concerns will abate as companies pass costs on to the
consumer – we expect price increases in the next 2-4 months
to act as a trigger for the next move up.
Upgrade HUL; downgrade Asian Paints, Marico. We
upgrade HUL to Overweight from Neutral, as we believe its
87% underperformance against the broader market over the
past year prices-in its disappointing sales traction; more
importantly, we also expect HUL to deliver stronger volume
growth in the coming quarters. We downgrade Marico to
Neutral (although our 3Q numbers are above consensus) on
valuation and concerns over coconut oil prices. We
downgrade Asian Paints to Neutral on valuation and margin
concerns due to crude oil inflation in coming quarters.
Top pick. We prefer two stocks that are out-of-favour –
HUL (as we think its recent poor performance is likely to
improve) and ITC (we believe taxation concerns are
overplayed), and two that are consistent high-growth stocks
with good visibility - Dabur and Nestlé.

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