2010年4月亚洲电信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：34
        【目录或简介】：
Action
A disappointing March for Asia-ex Japan telcos – underperforming every other
sector and most regional indices. Axiata continues to rally, following its 18%
selldown in XL at the high end of the indicative range. Otherwise, the focus is more
around competition concerns in India/ Indonesia and content wars in Singapore. 3G
bids will be finalised in India this month – the risk of overpayment is high. Results
season kicks off this month – we expect a subdued outlook.
 Catalysts
We continue to focus on companies with low gearing, strong cashflow, high
earnings visibility and potential for a turnaround.
Anchor themes
We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on Asia ex-Japan telcos, given concerns over
operational and regulatory risks.
Underperformance mounts
 Sector led by mid caps; Indian names had a strong rally
Mid caps SmarTone and XL led the sector performance – rising 15-21% in March.
The Indian stocks rallied too at +7-12% – the market is starting to absorb the
Bharti-Zain deal, 3G is making progress, and price-wars appear stable for now.
China Telecom was the best performing large cap (+12%) driven by strong FY09
reported net adds. Other heavyweights, CHT and SingTel rose 4%, while Telstra
was almost flat. China Mobile, Telkom and PLDT fell 2-5%. The bottom three
performers were China Unicom, PLDT and Maxis (absolute -3-6%; -4-7% versus
sector). XL and Axiata maintained their YTD leadership positions with gains of 81%
and 26%, respectively.
 NJA telcos: relative underperformance persists
A 1% absolute increase translated to 400-900bps of underperformance to other
sectors, and 200-800bps underperformance to regional equity indices.
 April: stocks in action — China Telecom, AIS, Bharti
We believe China Tel should report improved EBITDA and margins for 1Q10 this
month and hence we expect the shares to rise further. AIS could experience
weakness due to uncertainty on ICT and TOT’s resolution regarding Thaksin’s
court ruling. Bharti will be in focus on 3G – bids over US$2bn will not be well
received, in our view.
 Marketing feedback: Asean in focus
Indonesia/Malaysia are a key focus. There are more questions on potential price
wars in Indonesia. Telstra is also topical given the recent weak performance.
 Earnings revisions
There were upward revisions in consensus earnings expectations for Axiata,
SingTel and KT, and downward revisions for RCOM, Telstra and SK Broadband.

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