2009年11月印度快速消费品行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月印度快速消费品行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：76
        【目录或简介】：

We introduce a model to assess pricing
power for FMCG companies to see if
they can pass on price increases
􀀗 We assess margin risk as low and, at
given valuations, Indian FMCG is in a
sweet spot
􀀗 Top picks: ITC, Dabur, Asian Paints
Bullish on the FMCG sector: sales growth is robust, gross
margins have expanded and companies are spending to build
stronger brands. The key risk is whether companies can pass
on cost increases to consumers.
To assess this, we present our proprietary five-factor
pricing power model. Our conclusion is that unless
inflation is severe, most companies are unlikely to see a
significant adverse impact on margins.
Valuation is not a major concern: We believe that
valuations are only just above average (current PE of 22x vs
average of 20.4x) and nowhere near peak levels of 30x.
Given robust fundamentals, we believe these multiples are
sustainable. We expect stock prices to move in line with EPS
growth at 15-20%.
Stock picks: We prefer companies that grow via increased
category penetration, distribution expansion, are aggressive
in product innovation and have pricing power to offset cost
inflation. We are Overweight on ITC, Dabur, Asian Paints,
Nestle, and Marico and remain Neutral on HUL and Colgate.

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