2010年美国互联网行业展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国互联网行业展望
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：33
        【目录或简介】：

2010 Outlook: Favoring online
ad segment - Top picks
Jeetil Patel
Research Analyst
(+1) 415 617-4223
jeetil.patel@db.com
Herman Leung
Research Analyst
(+1) 415 617-3246
herman.leung@db.com
Matt Chesler, CFA
Research Analyst
(+1) 212 250-6170
matthew.chesler@db.com
Industry invest. thesis favors online ads- Top picks:GOOG, IACI, AMZN, GSIC
For 2010, while stock selectivity will be key in the sector, we favor the Internet
media sector upturn as an investment theme, particularly as enterprise ad budgets
(for online) are on the mend, following a 5% decline last year. Paid search and
display ads should actually stand out in 2010, whereas the credit crisis placed
unusual budget pressure last year. We highlight Google & IAC as our top picks in
media, while strong business fundamentals at Amazon & GSI Commerce should
help differentiate in a tough e-commerce spending environment.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Amazon.com (AMZN.OQ),USD127.61 Buy
Google (GOOG.OQ),USD580.41 Buy
GSI Commerce (GSIC.OQ),USD24.29 Buy
InterActiveCorp (IACI.OQ),USD21.35 Buy
Companies featured
Amazon.com (AMZN.OQ),USD127.61 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 2.52 3.02 2.75
P/E (x) 27.8 42.2 46.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.8 8.6 26.8
Yahoo! (YHOO.OQ),USD16.75 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 0.43 0.42 0.48
P/E (x) 49.3 40.0 34.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.9 8.6 7.7
Global Markets Research Company
Solid Growth for E-Commerce, Online Advertising to Rebound
For the sector outlook, we are looking for 5%Y/Y growth in e-commerce in 2010,
driven by market share gains from traditional retail to reach over 5% of total
spend. Meanwhile, online advertising should rebound next year to $24bn in the US
(or +7%Y/Y), after declining 4%-5% last year. Again, online advertising segments
such as search, video, display and rich media should represent the clear-cut
outperformers within the online ad market, which should bode well for the likes of
Google in search (and increasingly in display ads). Due to the high ROI nature of
paid search, we think this category should enjoy strong gains in 2010 among large
companies and retailers, yet any positive ad spending trends among smaller
companies could truly propel segment growth this year. Note that shares of
Google trade at 22x 2010E EPS, a ~30% discount to historical forward 12-month
EPS multiples, despite a 21% profit growth profile (2007 to 2011).
E-Commerce themes: Distribution, Fulfillment, Mobile, & Secondary markets
Within a volatile e-commerce spending environment, we highlight several
emerging themes for 2010, including: 1) distribution and diversification of ecommerce
channels will be critical to success this year, 2) fulfillment
infrastructures represent a strategic advantage, and we look to companies to
exploit this advantage to differentiate and enhance the consumer value
proposition, 3) an alternative e-commerce category (secondary market, private
sales) is emerging into a multi-billion dollar industry, representing a growth
opportunity for e-commerce companies, and 4) mobile commerce infrastructure
will likely build throughout the year, in anticipation of a major ramp in 4Q and 2011.
We like Amazon and GSI Commerce as these companies do not have as
significant exposures to online ad rates increasing, yet unique strategies (Amazon
in pricing, selection, new product initiatives, and GSI in client wins and retailer ad
spending driving growth) should help fuel profit growth in 2010.
Risks and Valuation
Risks for companies in e-commerce and media segments include, but are not
limited to: general economic conditions, consumer spending patterns, online
infrastructure disruptions, government taxation, technological changes and ability
to gain share from traditional mediums. Valuations for stocks in the Internet space
are generally based on P/E, EBITDA multiples relative to its fundamental growth
outlook in future periods. We also use free cash flow multiples, discount cash flow
models and sum-of-the-parts in some instances to further support our price
targets.

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