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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国保险行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：67
【目录或简介】：
China Insurance
Unveiling the Sources of Life;
Assume with Attractive View
We view life insurance as one of the most attractive
industries in China, offering a structural growth story,
underpinned by a low level of penetration and potential
leverage to the rising interest rate environment. In this
report, we also identify the sources of the insurers’
underlying earnings and show that the industry is
actually one of the most profitable among global
financial services, thanks to solid earnings composition,
and offers a secure earnings growth story. Although
valuations are not inexpensive, we believe the level of
premium can be justified by the industry’s attractive
fundamentals. We therefore assume coverage of the
China insurance industry with an Attractive view. Our top
picks, in order of preference, are China Life, China
Taiping, and China Pacific Insurance.
Key investment debate #1: Does the industry offer
more than just a proxy to A shares? Our sources of
earnings analysis demonstrates that the insurers derive
a significant proportion of their underlying earnings from
more stable and sustainable non-investment-related
sources. We also show that the industry has one of the
highest ROAs globally, and a tight regulatory framework
could mean these are likely sustainable, in our view.
Key investment debate #2: Will new accounting
standards affect the industry materially? The
changes are designed to align reporting standards for Aand
H-share companies, and will mainly affect the
fair-value measurement of liability. We do not expect
material changes to current H-share reported financials.
Higher tax will be the key negative from this, although at
this stage it is difficult to quantify the effect.
Key potential near-term catalysts: Interest rates and
further deregulation of investment channels: With
more than 50% of income sourced from
investment-related earnings, the risks for insurers are on
the upside in a tightening cycle, we believe.
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