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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国保险行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：131
【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion 1
Primed for growth 8
The Chinese insurance industry offers significant long-term growth potential driven by a plethora of powerful forces. Planned
widening of social security net could also benefit the industry as population reduces level of precautionary savings. We expect
Life and Non-life markets to grow 12.4% and 15.7% pa over the next 15 years although profitability trends are likely to differ.
Life market excites us 16
We are particularly positive about the profitable development of the Life segment. Growth could surprise on the upside if the Chinese
government successfully introduces much needed nationwide tax breaks on insurance products which have so far proven elusive.
Non-life beset with challenges 26
Non-life market profitability is unlikely to mirror robust premium growth tends although scope for improvement is undeniable when
returns are benchmarked against Europe’s largest insurers. We expect Top 5 incumbents, hampered by agency channel conflict will
lose significant market share over the next 15 years as direct distribution trends seen in more developed markets take hold.
Accounting confusion 37
Confusion will reign supreme during the upcoming results season following the rushed adoption of new ‘fair value’ accounting
standards which will unify A/H share reporting.
Hostage to the markets 44
Insurance share prices are hostage to capital markets although the perception of equity/interest rate sensitivity can be different from
fundamentals. Historically insurance share prices have been positively correlated with interest rate movements; the degree to which
this positive correlation will stand depends on the nature of the rise and potential knock-on impact on broader equity markets.
Valuation primer 53
We have used five different valuation methodologies across our universe to assess fundamental value. We do not place a heavy
reliance on earnings forecast for composites due to an absence of ‘life profit by source’ disclosure that is gaining traction in Europe.
China’s archaic embedded value disclosure prohibits us from assessing each insurers ‘operating’ free cash flow generation.
Investment propositions 61
Disclosure appendix 121
Disclaimer 127
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