2010年2月中国保险行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国保险行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Living the good life
Reinforcing operational excellence
While the market has been focusing on accounting reforms and PBOC tightening so far in
2010, we believe it has overlooked the exceptionally strong growth in actuarial value
progression being delivered by the China insurers. In FY09:
■ EV per share is expected to grow by 21% to 47% YoY reflecting the combined impact
of solid underlying progression (15-24%) and the NAV boost arising from the rebound
in the PRC equity market during 2009.
■ VNB growth is even stronger: we forecast YoY increases of between 30% and 69%.
The solid growth trajectory reflects structural increases in household income coupled
with insurer initiatives to expand agent networks and transform business mix.
Company level performance
China Taiping is expected to report the strongest value growth in the sector for FY09. We
forecast EV per share growth of 47% YoY and VNB growth of 69% YoY. The superior
growth is a reflection of CTIH’s aggressive product and distribution expansion strategy
relative to its smaller (and less mature) in-force base.
The three major PRC life insurers are expected to report relatively consistent results.
China Pacific is forecast to lead its peers with 31% YoY EV growth and a 37% YoY
increase in VNB. China Life and Ping An are expected to be close behind with both
forecast to report 21-24% EV growth and 30-31% VNB progression.
Outlook and recommendations
In 2010, we expect growth to moderate reflecting our base-case assumption of ‘normal’
(10%) equity returns and our belief that the impact of business mix transformation on VNB
will not be as large. However, our forecasts imply a continuation of strong operational
execution by the insurers and we believe this reinforces the long-term attractiveness of the
sector. Investors may require patience, in the near term, for the following three key reasons:
■ Firstly, macro tightening fears are expected to remain a concern for investors. We
maintain our view that administrative measures and the increased use of rhetoric by
PRC authorities are deliberately designed to subdue asset price inflation, negating the
need for aggressive tightening that could potentially have wide-reaching ramifications
for economic trajectory. Accordingly, we believe current fears will eventually ease,
leading to a more optimistic market view.
■ Secondly, accounting reforms continue to undermine investor confidence. Accounting for
insurers is opaque at the best of times and thus, the proposed harmonisation of PRC
GAAP with IFRS has understandably caused consternation. We stand by our view that
PRC GAAP is moving towards IFRS and hence, H-share investors have little to be
concerned about. This is expected to be clarified in April when FY09 results are due.
■ Finally, the pipeline of equity issuance is unusually busy. The prospect of large-cap
insurance IPOs in Hong Kong and Korea and the expectation in the market that China
banks will raise capital appear to be weighing on market sentiment. There is no way to
avoid this, although we do view it as a factor that is somewhat temporary in nature.
Within the sector, we believe China Taiping offers the greatest chance of material
upgrades given its strong value growth profile. We continue to like CPIC’s simple business
model and relatively cheap valuation. In the mega-caps, we prefer China Life over Ping An
given similar operational growth, fewer “moving parts” to the business model and only a
narrow valuation premium. We remain cautious on PICC.

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