2010年2月澳大利亚石油天然气行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月澳大利亚石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：
Australia Oil & Gas
Exploration the Value Driver
Australian energy stocks have performed poorly in
recent weeks, following the US$ oil price lower. We are
bullish on oil, and the recent pullback exposes pockets
of deep value. We expect oil prices to recover to
US$95/bbl by year-end driving energy stocks higher.
Accordingly, we lift our sector recommendation to
Attractive from In-line
Recent poor performance overshadows reasonable
gains registered in certain names over the past year.
The disparity between specific companies demands
a stock-selective approach in our view.
Exploration activity is a key differentiation between
stocks. It drove relative performance in 2009 and we
expect this to continue into 2010. The most active
companies this quarter are WPL, KAR and AWE, to be
joined later in 2010 by OSH drilling in PNG.
Don’t look for M&A. Despite frequent press
speculation about certain M&A combinations and asset
deals, 2009 saw minimal activity. We do not expect 2010
to be any more active.
The coal seam gas sector faces a reality test this
year. CSG-LNG project proponents with ambitious
projects and aggressive time-lines must deliver FID’s
this year or face de-rating. The easy money was made in
2008 amid a deal frenzy, but from here to LNG
production in 2014 or 2015 investors in these projects
face technical, financial and market risk.
Conventional LNG projects offshore WA will glut the
market if they all happen, but exploration for gas is
accelerating, as is the offshore gas inventory. Not all the
projects will happen and investors need to be
project-selective.
This report contains updated earnings, valuations and
price targets that are, in general negative, mostly due to
a harsher view on future A$/US$ exchange rates. Our
key Overweight recommendations are Woodside, Oil
Search and AWE.

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关键词：行业研究报告 石油天然气 天然气行业 研究报告 澳大利亚 研究报告 行业 澳大利亚 石油 天然气

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