2010年2月菲律宾电力行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月菲律宾电力行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：108
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Executive summary 4
Attractive fundamentals support growth 5
Bullish on spot market tariffs and merchant capacity 5
Pro-renewable government policies 5
Increased geothermal energy utilisation 6
Significant untapped hydroelectric potential 6
Opportunities for acquisition-based growth 6
Stock preferences 8
SEA power and utilities valuation table 9
Sector valuation comparison 11
Philippine power company P/E and P/BV ratios 11
Regional price-earnings comparison 12
Regional price-to-book comparison 12
Regional dividend yield comparison 13
Comparison of recent absolute and relative trading patterns 14
Fundamentals supportive of growth 15
Consumption — ample scope for growth 15
2008-2017F peak demand CAGR of 4.4% 16
Additional 4,100MW capacity required over coming eight years 17
Significant organic growth potential for IPPs 18
Where is the herd? 18
Strong volume growth a boon for DUs 19
DUs constrained by supply, vertical integration a plus 19
Spot markets – the tide is turning 21
Bullish on spot rates in the medium term 21
A trading opportunity for merchant plants 23
Renewable energy — a cornerstone of energy self-sufficiency 25
Geothermal and hydro — 34% of the Philippines’ generating mix 25
Pro-renewable government policies 25
Geothermal: searing growth potential 28
Philippines: a major player in geothermal production 28
Ample scope for growth in the Philippines 29
Indonesia — a major geothermal growth node 31
Positive on hydroelectric potential 36
Significant untapped hydro capacity 36
Impounding hydro allows generators to target peak times 37
No marginal cash cost, downside protection 37
Tropical climate, diversified portfolio mitigates hydrology risk 37
Relationship between rainfall and tariffs insulates margins 38
Shifting regulatory paradigm 39
The prologue 39
Increased competition in the generation market 40
Transmission sector privatisation to drive efficiency 42
Distribution sector – a tightly regulated, defensive business 42
Supply, retail competition and open access 46
Proposed amendments to EPIRA – potential implications 47
Fill your boots — the great Filipino sale 48
Privatisation of the NPC’s generating assets 48
Appointing IPPAs for the NPC’s contracted capacity 51
Enter conflicting dynamics: efficiency gains versus profit maximisation 54
Appendix I: Power sector overview 55
Regulatory overview 55
Generation sector 55
Transmission sector 56
Distribution sector 57
Supply sector 57
Capacity and generating mix by fuel type 57
Electricity sales and consumption 58
Appendix II: The geothermal energy production process 61
Stages in geothermal power development – a closer look 61
Key advantages of geothermal energy 63
Appendix III: Valuation methodologies and risks 67
Latest company views
Manila Electric Co 69
Energy Development Corp 79
Aboitiz Power 97

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