欧洲电力行业研究报告2007年10月

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European Utilities
22 October 2007 - AGM EUROPE UTILITIES
Power Age Developments
Our Power Age call (16 July 2007) for a 30% rise in European
power prices is gaining momentum. Power prices are on the rise
now, and so are share prices. We look into what’s behind the rise
in prices so far, and what’s next. Stay with generators, in
particular the clean and young ones.
Prices Rise
Our 16 July 2007 Power Age call for a (necessary) increase in power wholesale prices across
Europe, and in particular in Central Europe and the Nordic region was quick to start to
materialise. We had been calling for a sustainable increase in prices from EUR55/MWh back
then to EUR70/MWh long run and prices have now edged closer to the EUR60/MWh mark
already. Front-year (2008) contracts have taken the EUR60/MWh hurdle now, but curves
remain in backwardation, showing some doubts on sustainability yet.
Behind the Rise
Both fuel (coal) and CO2 prices have sharply edged higher since the summer, in our view
almost perfectly explaining the increase in power prices (though power prices had been a
bit late in reflecting the trends in the fuel and carbon markets). Beyond the very volatile
front-year contracts, fuel prices can explain about EUR2/MWh of the EUR4-5/MWh move in
power prices, and the higher CO2 prices explain the remainder EUR2-3/MWh. In Power Age,
we had been predicting a rise in CO2 costs from EUR20/tC to EUR30/tC long run, but we
had not factored in higher coal prices. The essence of our call was for surging plant
construction costs (which we predicted to double versus 2005 levels) to fuel prices. Of
course, we stick with that, noting that the higher coal prices obviously have added a
cushion to our modelling.
Profits Lie
Price are not rising without reason (even though we might see that argument frequently in
the press). They are driven by higher costs to the market, in particular these had been rising
fuel and CO2 prices for the marginal plants (hard coal) in Europe, and rising replacement and
new build costs. The former was quick to be reflected in power prices, the latter remains to be
reflected in prices and the reason for us to continue to predict rising prices from here. In
particular, rising replacement costs are not likely to be (fully) found in profits, but in FCFs.
Assets Matter
Generators win in a rising price context, even though prices are driven by higher costs. This
is because the higher prices (finally) are earned for the output of all plants, not just those
incurring the higher costs. The game is about identifying the strongest plays, not just those
who rise on these developments. Europe’s young (few replacement costs) and clean (few
fuel and CO2 costs) generators win the most. Verbund (target EUR48, unchanged), EDF
(EUR111, unchanged) and Fortum (EUR33, unchanged) remain the prime names.

Contents
European Utilities
22 October 2007
Prices On the Rise 3
What’s Behind the Rise 5
Hard Coal Prices 6
CO2 Prices 7
And Plant Costs? 8
Company Implications 10
Realised Prices (ARPUs) 10
Costs Attached 10
Risks 11
Generator Target Valuations 12
EDF 13
E.ON 14
Fortum 16
RWE 18
Verbund 20
Generator Financials And ARPU Assumptions 21
Sales (ARPU) 22
EBITDA (Fuel/CO2Costs) 26
Maintenance (incl. Replacement) 31
Key Financials:
EDF 35
E.ON 36
Fortum 37
RWE 38
Verbund 39
Discosures 42
Legal Information 43

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