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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月韩国造船行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：30
【目录或简介】：
S. Korea Shipbuilding
Noises on Recovery; We See
a Glimmer of Hope
Maintaining In-Line Industry view with Mipo still as
our top pick: While maintaining an In-Line view on the
Korean shipbuilding industry, we raise price targets for
our coverage with no ratings changes. Hyundai Mipo
remains our top pick, as we believe the company is
under less pressure in terms of new orders, given its
strong cash position and its heavy exposure to relatively
underinvested smaller ship segments. We believe the
market is still wary on the industry, as the overall macro
environment gives us less conviction in new order
recovery. However, in terms of risk-reward, the group
seems to be supported on the downside, as new orders
and ship prices are bottoming out.
Key debate #1: Where are new orders, if any,
coming from? The market seems to be very doubtful
about any new order recovery this year due to macro
uncertainties and ongoing oversupply. While we
generally agree on the slow recovery, we note that
orders continue to flow where ship prices come down
significantly. Moreover, we are likely to see positive
catch-up developments in offshore orders such as
FPSOs and deep-sea rigs, as orders have been delayed
for more than a year.
Key debate #2: Orderbook risks seem to have
subsided recently – are they gone? The market views
the risks negatively, as half of the global orderbook
remains unfinanced. We believe the peak of
cancellations is behind us and delivery delays minimize
the cancellation risks. We think that Korean shipyards’
recently lowering guidance for 2010 revenue, partly
reaffirms such delivery delays. Also, ship prices are
bottoming out and seem to be poised to bounce back
later this year, which should alleviate ship financing.
Catalysts: New building prices turning up in 2H10, as
well as better-than-expected new orders, should support
share prices to the upside.
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