2010年1月西班牙传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月西班牙传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：法国农业信贷银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
A new virtuous cycle – T5 leads the way
􀁑 Improving fundamentals
The ad ban on TVE from Jan 1 and sector M&A is transforming the
market into a de facto oligopoly (from 5 to 2 players). GRPs are
bottoming out and TVE's ads are migrating fully to private channels,
audience fragmentation is stabilising and TV consumption is rising.
Prices are starting to rise (10-15% in Jan) and we look for +50% in
2010-11E. We expect sector earnings X2-3 in 2009-12E given high
operating leverage (70-80% of price hikes feed through to bottom
lines), integration synergies and a cyclical upturn from late-2010E.
􀁑 Telecinco: c45% of TV ad market at 10.4X11E P/E!
After merging with Cuatro & TVE's ad ban, T5 reinforces its #1 spot
in Spanish FTA (ad share from 26% to 45%), with massive pricing
power & cost-cutting potential. We see the EBITDA margin
bottoming in 2009E (19%) and nearing peak levels again in 2012E
(40%). The deal creates massive value and puts the shares at only
10.4X11E P/E (vs. 15X mid-cycle average). We reiterate our
1/Selected List rating and raise our TP 25% to EUR13.50.
􀁑 Antena 3: close to catching the M&A train too
La Sexta will also allow A3 to reinforce its market position (just
behind T5) & generate strong synergies. However, La Sexta is
heavily loss making (costly sports rights) and fundamentally weaker
than Cuatro (volatile programming grid ratings, weak prime-time).
We estimate the deal will be EPS dilutive in 2010-11E and less value
creative than for T5, but could lift our EUR10 TP by 5-10%. 1/SL.
􀁑 Prisa: distressed valuation despite falling risk premium
Asset disposals provide relief for gearing ratios (from 7.7X09E to
4.6X10E) & should pave the way for a refinancing deal with the
banks. Fundamentals are improving (swapping loss-making Cuatro
for a relevant stake in #1 player, Mediaset & Telefonica should help
energise D+) and the risk premium has fallen. However, the shares
are still languishing at distressed multiples (6X10E P/E, or 3X adj. for
stake in T5), which we find unmerited. We raise our TP from EUR5.2
to EUR6.7 (80% upside) and reiterate our 2/Outperform rating.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 传媒行业 西班牙 研究报告 行业 西班牙