2010年5月欧洲传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月欧洲传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：ESN research
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：43
        【目录或简介】：

In 2010 and 2011, European media companies face a) a modest recovery in
European advertising markets, b) highest advertising growth rates in
emerging markets, being followed by the US and c) rising M&A activity. The
average sales growth of ESN Media companies being covered is 3.3% in
FY10 and 4.0% in FY11. Sales growth will be largest at Broadcasters &
Entertainment and Media Agencies and is weakest at Publishers. From an
EBITDA perspective, the average growth rates are 16% and 14% for resp.
FY10 and FY11, with largest growth rates at Media agencies, being
followed by Broadcasters and Publishers.
Rising new business sales at media agencies, higher TV upfront markets
and several companies (like retailers) recently lifting advertising spending
indicate that advertising markets are improving. Still, a large part of the
relative improvement is related to an easier comparison base, only
reflecting a modest real underlying improvement. Visibility remains low, but
it seems obvious that advertising markets have hit a bottom. We expect
global advertising spending to rise by 2.8%, 3.9% and 4.9% in resp. FY10,
FY11 and FY12, following an unprecedented drop in FY09 (-9.8%). In FY12,
we expect global advertising spending to be slightly topping FY08 levels.
Top Picks
In general, we: a) favour investments in Media agencies above
Broadcasters and Publishers and b) we like companies that are strongly
exposed to emerging markets and the US. Media agencies benefit from
their relatively large exposure to emerging markets and from digitalisation,
more than offsetting pricing pressure at media buying activities.
Broadcasters have high operational leverage and benefit early from
improving advertising markets, but many share prices already reflect
expectations of a strong earnings recovery, making us somewhat cautious.
In general, publishers are less exposed to advertising markets (than
broadcasters and media agencies) and have more late-cyclical
characteristics. Still, several companies will report a jump in operating
margins, as the impact of cost saving measures feeds through the P&L.
There are large variances between companies, depending on their region,
product and client base.
Within the individual segments, we favour:
- Media agencies: Publicis and Ipsos
- Broadcasters: Mediaset and Antena 3 TV (more speculative)
- Publishing: PagesJaunes

Contents
Recommendations and Target Prices.....................................................3
Performance overview................................................................................4
Where is advertising heading?.................................................................5
Emerging markets exposure.................................................................. 10
USD exposure........................................................................................... 11
Mergers & Acquisitions........................................................................... 12
Industry segment views.......................................................................... 14
Sector earnings & valuations................................................................. 19
Where to invest in?.................................................................................. 21
Latest recommendation changes.......................................................... 24
Company profiles..................................................................................... 25

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 传媒行业 Expectations 研究报告 行业 欧洲

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