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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月南欧电信行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
TEF wants full control of its Brazilian
assets and may look at various options –
we would prefer a ‘Portuguese solution’.
􀀗 But if TEF feels the Portuguese options
have been exhausted, it may turn to
Telecom Italia. A transaction at the Telco
level would not benefit TI’s free float.
Network separation is the biggest risk.
􀀗 Telefonica remains Overweight, target
EUR21; reiterate Neutral (V) on PT, target
EUR8.3 (from EUR7.3); Telecom Italia
stays Underweight (V), target EUR1
Brazil is the most important LatAm market for Telefonica
(TEF). The recent entry of Vivendi in our view puts pressure on
TEF to improve its asset allocation in Brazil. Continuing to
keep Vivo and Telesp separate prevents TEF from exploiting
the full potential of these assets: we estimate potential in-market
synergies in Brazil for TEF of about EUR3-3.5bn. We identify
four options for TEF.
1 TEF buys PT out of VIVO (cost EUR3.7-4.8bn). Full
ownership of Vivo could lead to a Vivo-Telesp
integration. But PT has so far resisted selling.
2 TEF buys the whole of PT (cost EUR10-12bn).
However, TEF probably lacks sufficient support in
Portugal to waive the 10% poison pill.
3 TEF gains control of TI by buying other shareholders
out of holding company Telco (cost EUR3.5-4bn).
22.5% would be enough for TEF to control TI, and among
other things take decisions on Brazil.
4 TEF launches an offer for the whole of TI (cost up to
EUR25bn). Expensive and probably unnecessary. It
would make sense only if TEF believed TI can be a big
turnaround story. However, to achieve that TEF has to
firmly resist any form of network separation.
Winners and losers: (1) TI free-float would benefit only from
option 4. (2) PT would benefit through enhanced valuation of
Brazilian assets. We increase our target price by 14% after
Vivo’s Q409 results. (3) An ‘Italian solution’ is second best for
TEF. Option 3 could be a reasonable compromise.
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