发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度电信行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：35
【目录或简介】：
4QFY10E estimates: Flat revenue growth at best
Wireless revenues have grown only 6% YoY (9mFY10) despite a 51% increase in
subscribers, and we expect the trend to continue into 4Q. We forecast QoQ
revenue growth for Bharti, RCOM, and Idea to be flat to negative owing to the
continued tariff declines. We expect EBITDA to fall 0-8% QoQ for the telecom
companies (see inside for detailed 4QFY10E forecasts). Bharti (Buy) remains our
top pick in the sector, with a target price of Rs340.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Periodical
Table of contents
Feature ............................................................. Page 02
Industry scorecard............................................ Page 05
Global meeting room........................................ Page 09
Indian Telecom - Chart Scan............................. Page 16
What's new ...................................................... Page 19
Top picks
Bharti Airtel Limited (BRTI.BO),INR316.05 Buy
Companies featured
Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO),INR177.15 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 15.8 15.2 46.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 9.5 11.9
Price/book (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8
Bharti Airtel Limited (BRTI.BO),INR316.05 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 14.6 13.7 17.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 7.7 8.0
Price/book (x) 3.9 3.1 2.6
Idea Cellular Limited (IDEA.BO),INR63.75 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 24.1 38.1 259.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.4 8.5 9.3
Price/book (x) 1.2 1.5 1.5
OnMobile (ONMO.BO),INR420.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 28.9 23.1 17.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.3 11.5 8.1
Price/book (x) 2.6 3.0 2.6
Tata Communications (TATA.BO),INR287.10 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) – 90.7 62.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.0 8.6 6.6
Price/book (x) 2.8 1.5 1.5
Wireless market share
Subscriber Revenue
(Feb 10) Q3FY10
Bharti 22.3% 31.2%
Reliance 17.8% 11.7%
Vodafone 17.4% 20.1%
Idea 11.1% 12.3%
Tata 11.3% 7.1%
BSNL + MTNL 11.8% 12.7%
Aircel 6.2% 3.8%
Others 1.9% 1.1%
Wireless KPI - Q4FY10E
Bharti RCom Idea
Subscribers (mn) 127.5 102.4 57.8
Net revenues (Rs. mn) 98,117 52,892 30,011
EBITDA (Rs. mn) 39,130 17,419 6,604
EBITDA Margin (%) 39.9% 32.9% 22.0%
ARPU (Rs./month/sub) 215 138 182
MoU (min/month/sub) 436 322 378
RPM (Rs./min) 0.49 0.43 0.48
Related recent research Date
Namaste DB Access India - Telecom Panel - Key
Takeaways
09 Mar 2010
Bharti Airtel Ltd - Bharti bids for Zain
15 Feb 2010
Global Markets Research Company
Marketing costs: The next pain point for the industry
Our discussions with industry sources and the regulator indicate that multiple
SIMs account for 30-50% of monthly net additions. These ‘opportunistic
subscribers’ are continuously arbitraging between the various offers from the
companies. The higher churn is leading to a rapid increase in verification costs and
rising payouts to the trade and thus further hurt margins.
RCOM reveals strategy 2.0; positive for sector outlook
Reliance Communication’s new head of its wireless business commented that the
rate of tariff declines is likely to abate and that he expects more ‘rational’ tariffs in
the future. He also indicated that RCOM will shift its focus from subscriber to
revenue market share. We note that RCOM was one of the players to precipitate
the current tariff war through a steep cut in baseline tariffs. Hence we are
encouraged by its focus on revenue and profitability and view this as a positive
development for the sector.
3G auctions: More bidders for WiMax than WCDMA spectrum
The auction of WCDMA spectrum is slated to commence on 9 April. There are
only nine bidders, only six of which have paid the requisite earnest money to bid
on a pan-India basis. The six are Bharti, Idea, Aircel, Tata Teleservices, Vodafone
and Reliance. Ironically there are more bidders (11) for WiMax spectrum. We
expect a successful pan-India 3G (WCDMA spectrum bid) at about USD1.5bn.
Valuation and risks
We use DCF (Rf of 8.1%, Rm of 5.4%, and a TGR of 4%) as our primary valuation
methodology for the sector, owing to the predictability of cash flow. Potential
upside risks to our valuation are: 1) higher-than-expected growth in subscriptions
and usage and 2) higher-than-anticipated gains from tower sharing. Downside risks
are: 1) regulatory overhang, 2) severe pricing pressure due to competition and 3) a
slowdown in non-wireless businesses.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
