JPM-JAPAN TECHNOLOGY SNAPSHOT-VOL.39-100226

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      【出版时间及名称】：JPM-JAPAN TECHNOLOGY SNAPSHOT-VOL.39-100226
      【作者】：jpm
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：61
      【目录或简介】：
We have revised our forecasts for the size of the global semiconductor market
in light of earnings through December 2009. Our projections are now $257.82
billion in 2010 (+14.0% YoY; previous forecast $252.06 billion) and $279.13
billion in 2011 (+8.3% YoY).
• In December, digital camera shipment volume totaled 7.36 million units
(+23.2% YoY), shipment value totaled ¥121.7 billion (+18.6%), and the
average unit price was ¥16,532 (-3.8%). Shipment volume rose at a doubledigit
YoY pace in all regions except the “others” region, with particularly
steep growth in both shipment volume and value (+60.8% and +66.0%,
respectively) in North America.
• We have updated our bottom-up semiconductor capex forecasts. For 2010, we
raise our estimate to $40.29 billion (+67.5%) from $35.85 billion (+47.6%).
Foundry- and memory-related investment accounts for much of this revision.
• December HDD production volume totaled 53.24 million units (+60.8% YoY,
-4.4% MoM). Output thus remained robust, with the seasonal decline typical
of December limited in size. We maintain our HDD shipment forecasts at 649
million units (+16.7% YoY) for 2010, 727 million units (+12.0%) for 2011,
and 797 million units (+9.6%) for 2012.
• Aggregate orders at the 11 electronic component makers we track grew 40.6%
YoY in December, marking the 10th straight month of improvement since
bottoming last February. Inventories have not been building up in the weeks
since the year-end shopping season, and while we think orders will fall in

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