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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚太汽车行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：62
【目录或简介】：
Key items this month
• What is changing? We analyze: 1) The impact of the steel cost hike on
China’s passenger vehicle producers and heavy truck producers, and the FY09
results preview for China’s auto producers; 2) the short-term positive impact of
Toyota’s recall on Korean auto makers; 3) the transition to BS III/BSIV
emission norms likely to lead to a sales price increase by auto producers in
India; 4) the M/M decline in January auto sales due to the ending of the
government’s subsidy in Taiwan; 5) the impact on Toyota’s sales and earnings
from its recall in Japan; and 6) the small positive impact on auto distributors
from the new policy requiring mining companies to import vehicles through
authorized distributors instead of importing directly in Indonesia.
• Information: We discuss: 1) Chinese auto producers raising sales targets for
FY10 due to the strong demand, a sequential decline in January auto exports,
and Sinopec’s plan to build battery recharging stations for electric vehicles in
China; 2) the sales outlook for Kia Motor in Korea; 3) VW’s launch of its Polo
Hatchback model and Nissan’s plan to open a new plant implying increasing
competition in India’s passenger vehicle sector; 4) an overview of Toyota’s
recent recall event and its short-term and long-term impact on Toyota; and 5)
Daihatsu’s sales expansion plan in FY10 in Indonesia.
• Non-consensus calls: 1) We hold our neutral stance on China’s passenger
vehicle sector as we like the sector’s medium-term secular growth story based
on China’s low penetration of cars, the rising disposable income, and the
government’s stimulus policies for China’s auto sector due to China’s ongoing
transition from an investment-driven economy to a consumption-driven
economy. On the other hand, we are wary about the short-term volatilities in
China’s market; and 2) although we are positive on Hyundai Mobis in the long
term, we are concerned that its 2010 earnings momentum could be relatively
weaker than OEMs due to the dilution of the low-margin auto net revenue being
reflected on a full-year basis.
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