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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月韩国金融服务行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
Greater clarity on regulatory issues needed to reach
next step – Korean banks currently trade at 0.9x 10E
forward P/B and we believe they will be range-bound in
the near term. We recommend buying SFG, IBK and
KEB on dips as visibility improves, not only on regulatory
matters but also other impending issues (e.g. M&A).
Management structure showing changes – SFG’s
incumbent group chairman, Mr. Ra, was recently
re-elected for a fourth term but will likely no longer be the
chairman of the board. KFG expected to appoint new
external directors in March. Better “checks and
balances” should be favorable for the longer term.
Changes to deposit guarantee policy may be
positive – According to local press (Maeil Daily, 1 Mar
2010), FSC is now considering differentiating deposit
guarantees between financial segments.We believe this
may benefit banks considering (1) flow of money to safer
havens, and (2) higher guarantee limits to be favorable
when deriving LCR & NSFR.
Banks may not be so burdened by BASEL III due to
(1) expected watering down of current proposals, (2) low
trading & off-balance sheet exposure, (3) improving
earnings (normalized ROE of 13~14%) with further
boost from legacy asset sales. We believe Korean
banks should reach +7~10% Core Tier 1 ratio and 5~6%
Core Tier 1 Leverage ratio by end of 2012.
New liquidity guidelines may be more of a concern
as the level of uncertainty seems higher. Like BASEL
3, watering down is expected (+ grace period) and
pro-active efforts should enable Korean banks to satisfy
these guidelines.
Regulatory changes 􀃆 Strategic realignment – With
the changing regulatory & market environment, we
believe Korean banks need to change their business
models. We like banks with strong gathering ability,
regulatory arbitrage and healthy flow businesses. SFG,
KEB, IBK and KFG seem well positioned, in our view.
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