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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月台湾3D显示技术行业研究报告
【作者】：元大京华
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
3D Display Technology
Entering a new dimension
Summary: We believe that 3D display will remain in its infancy in 2010, and we do not expect any significant earnings contributions for supply chain stocks in Taiwan until 2H11. However, with increasing consumer interest in 3D applications as well as enriched content from filmmakers and broadcasters, we anticipate the 3D display industry will eventually take off in the next two-to-three years on the back of cheap hardware, sufficient content and improving 3D quality gradually removing the requirement of wearing 3D glasses.
Market size and catalysts: We forecast 3.3 mn units of 3D-ready displays in 2010, including 2.6 mn units of 3D TVs as the main industry driver. We estimate the 3D display market will increase to 49.2 mn units in 2014, or 11-12% of the total display market value. We identify 1) an increasing number of 3D movies; 2) the debut of 3D broadcasting; 3) 3D format standardization; and 4) mass production of 3D-ready TV panels (at 240Hz) as catalysts of 3D TV demand at the current stage.
Technology: We highlight four major 3D technologies, but we do not see a perfect solution for consumers currently, considering additional costs, resolution issues, and the hassle of wearing 3D glasses. We predict 1) glasses-free will not become the mainstream technology in the next three years for 3D TVs and monitors; and 2) the shutter glasses type, supported by global TV brands, will have over 70% 3D TV market share in 2010-11, while polarized glasses will have over a 50% share in 3D solutions for PC (monitor/NB) displays.
Content outweighs hardware in terms of costs: Unlike LED-TVs, where the cost curve from LED chips is the penetration rate driver, the incremental cost for current 3D TV technology is from shutter glasses (US$50-100 for each) plus the upgrade of set-top boxes. As a result, reducing costs for content creation has become critical to encouraging consumers to buy 3D-ready TVs (which now sell for US$2,000-5,000 on average with a 240Hz refresh rate) and the subsequent upgrade to Blu-ray players or LCD monitors which are capable of 3D functions in 2010.
Potential beneficiaries: We identify three stages of market growth in the next five years, wherein the first stage (2010-11) global TV brands (Sony, Samsung), 3D technology IP providers (RealD, IMAX) and 2D-to-3D processor makers (Nvidia) are potential major winners. In our view the 3D TV mainstream is now driven by system/brands, and not by panel makers. From a three-year perspective for Taiwan, we highlight Wistron (3231 TT; BUY - a NB ODM with 3D software), CyberLink (5203 TT; not rated – a PC multimedia software provider), Daxon (8215 TT; not rated – a polarizer producer) and Entire Tech (3573 TT; not rated – an optical firm) as companies that currently have small 3D-related product lines that could potentially see significant benefits from the segment in the future.
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