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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国石油天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：MIRAE ASSET
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
3
4
4
6
7
8
8
0
2
Global excess capacity 3
3
5
Overseas upstream asset injection
Oil field spe ................................ 6
6
7
7
Deepwater exploration has huge potential in offshore China 18
CNOOC - Roaring growth in 2010 ..............................................................20
COSL - Better times lie ahead ....................................................................27
PetroChina - World beating performance..................................................34
Sinopec - Upstream asset boost.................................................................43
Ap 9
9
............................................................................................57
Executive summary
Earnings growth will resume in 2010
OPEC is the world’s swing oil producer and accounts for about 33% of global supply. We believthe cartel will issue more hawkish supply comments at their 17-March meeting in Vienna to keeoil prices elevated. Therefore, we forecast oil prices will fluctuate between $70 and $90 durinmost of 2010, averaging $80/bbl versus $62/bbl in 2009, thus ensuring the resumption of earnings growth in the energy sector. Higher oil prices plus positive domestic pricing measures could boost profits by over 40% YoY in 2010 for CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec. The low baseffect of 2009, especially for the upcoming first quarter earnings announcement, will make the year-on-year comparison easier and more favorable for China’s giant oil trio. Despite sluggish odemand growth, prices are supported by OPEC’s reluctance to increase oil exports meaningfullyand the deteriorating productivity of non-OPEC’s existing mature fields. Meanwhile, global sparcapacity of about 4mn bopd and energy efficiency gains should keep prices from rising too quickly. Potential upside risks include the resumption of greenback weakness and escalation ogeopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although Iraq has signed many deals with internationoil companies this year to help the country boost its production capacity to 11mn bopd, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani has said it will take years for this new output to come on streaand does not expect it will achieve any “significant” increase in oil production before 201
Domestic natural gas pricing reform will lift profitability Natural gas, a cleaner fuel than oil or coal, accounts for just 3% of China’s primary energy miversus 35% in the US. Beijing’s pledge to cut carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 40% (versus 2005 level) by 2020 will see natural gas potentially taking up to over 15% of the energy mix. Therefore, we expect to see China raising domestic natural gas prices and implement tsubsidies to expedite upstream project development of stranded gas reserves in remotlocations for meeting strong downstream demand growth, especially along the wealthier coastal cities. We believe ExxonMobil’s recent $41bn takeover of XTO Energy, the energy giant’s first sizable acquisition since its merger with Mobil in 1998, could lead to more M&Athe sector and potentially trigger a global uplift of natural gas reserve valuations. Firms with large gas reserves, particularly those with access to pipelines like PetroChina (857 HK, BUtarget price: HK$12) and city gas plays like China Gas (384 HK, BUY, target price: HK$5.0) and XiNao Gas (2688 HK, BUY, target price: HK$27.0) could be potential winners (see o
initiation report on China’s gas utilities, The Floodgates Are Openin
Oil prices will trade between $7$90/bbl during 2010, averaging$80/bbl, vs. $62/bbl for 2009,boding well for the resumptionearnings growth for the enersector
Energy pricing policies can wowonders for oil giants’ earniExpect China to raise domenatural gas prices to motivatexpedited field development tmeet rob
Refiners in China will outperform global peers While global peers continue to struggle with depressed refining margins owing to excess capacity amidst sluggish fuel demand, China’s cost-plus-reasonable-return pricing model will translate to superior refining margins for Sinopec and PetroChina. While boom and bust havruled the free markets overseas, China’s regulated refining margins have become the envy many global peers. While taming domestic inflation, China has, for the most part, ensured itstate refiners benefit from positive refining cash flow. It also encourages reinvestment in new world-class refineries that will enhance the country’s long-term national energy security. Athis China’s superior sales volume growth and we should see domestic refiners continue tooutperform global peers. The fact that Sinopec’s share price is still down 50% from its peak, despite record profits following domestic fuel pricing reform, affirms our suspicion that investors want to see a longer track record of China consistently sticking to its cost-plus pricing modbefore issuing any re-rating of the stock. Parent Sinopec Group’s overseas upstream asset injection could also help boost the listc
While taming domestic inflationChina will ensure a reasonable return for domestic refiners – vifor restoring the cash flow neefor reinvestment in new refincapacity for lo
to China’s manipulations downstream.
Oil field spending will continue to surpass expectations The sustained rebound of both oil and gas prices will improve the oil companies’ cash flow and investment confidence. Therefore, we expect increased spending on exploration, developmand production, which should all lead to earnings surprises for our industry top-pick China Oilfield Services (2883 HK, BUY, target price: HK$13), which will continue to leverage on idominance in offshore China. With CNOOC (883 HK, BUY, target price: HK$15) production sharing contract (PSC) partner Husky Energy’s recent drilling success in deepwater South China Sea, more detailed announcements of oil companies’ expanding deepwater exploration and development spending could also boost COSL, especially with parent compan
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