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high as we entered 2012 that a ‘new’ refining mechanism was just around
the corner. In reality, however, refiners suffered in 1H12. But they largely
caught up in 2H12, despite the ongoing crude price strength. We expect
2013 to reflect 2H12 refining, with a modest chemical uptick to beat 2012
(already priced in).
■ CNOOC: M&A dominated in 2012, execution will be 2013 focus. CNOOC
turned around production in 2012, but all eyes are on the Nexen deal, which
we see as fairly priced and value/skills accretive. As we enter 2013, the
focus turns to ongoing organic growth and execution of Nexen integration.
■ PetroChina: Painful pace of (gas) price reform. 2012 started so well—the
first week saw the new gas price trial linking to crude derivatives, but the rollout
has been slower than anticipated. We continue to believe in the longterm
direction of crude price linkage but think consensus 2013 expectations
are already setting a high bar for PetroChina to meet, never mind exceed.
■ COSL: (Earnings) solid as a rock—15% EPS growth with earnings
upside. In 2013 we shall see COSL’s two new semi-subs contributing to the
top line right from the start. The key question is when and how COSL utilises
its US$1 bn notes issuance (only c.US$150 mn used up so far)—if COSL
buys more second-hand rigs to meet near-term demand in South China Sea,
we should expect further upside from current expectations.
2012-12-10_瑞士信贷_China Oil and Gas Sector：Auld Lang Syne.pdf
(708.47 KB)
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