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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国石油天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Detailed deep dive into the natural gas market. In this report, we look at a
detailed demand-supply model for gas, present a provincial and prefecture
level analysis of affordability and a model for pricing, look at implications for
policy, oil companies in China and touch upon global implications – oil
demand and LNG imports.
■ Pricing: how much and how fast? Gas pricing upside in China is a
consensus view. In this report, we present a framework that answers how
much and how fast using a provincial and prefecture level of affordability
analysis. Our key insights – China is not one but two markets, with a sharp
difference in affordability across pockets, which limits penetration. The good
news is that large affluent markets are underpenetrated. The bad news is
that a potential surplus in 2013-15 could put pressure on pricing.
■ Medium-term pricing upside is well supported. Pricing policy in China
should be flexible at the front end. We see upside on pricing, regular reviews,
pass-through for imported gas, etc. However, as a surplus develops, pricing
will dislocate as power steps in with its 30-40% lower affordability.
■ PetroChina to benefit first. We expect gas prices to rise 15-20% next year,
and a 7.5% CAGR through to 2015. Prices could overshoot before falling at
the back end. Multiples relative to market valuation could trump DCF-based
NAV. CNOOC ultimately benefits, but contracts would limit immediate upside.
Sinopec’s upside on Puguang is already known.
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