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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲债券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Following weeks of marketing in Hong Kong,
Singapore, the United States and Europe, the
feedback we have generally received is that
there is a ‘wall of money’ that is being put to
work despite rich valuations.
􀀗 Fundamental concerns among the investor base
do exist. For example, in the US investors were
overwhelmingly convinced that there are
bubbles forming in China’s property market and
were concerned about the implications for
demand within the region should the bubble
burst. In Europe, attention was focused on the
impact of a deteriorating situation in Greece on
emerging market valuations.
􀀗 Investors’ views were in stark contrast to our
‘wall of worry’. HSBC stood with only a
handful of other market participants in
anticipating a significant market correction in
1H 2010. Our outlook is based on a scenario
of increased currency and rates volatility that
we expect will spill over to the credit markets
in the coming months.
􀀗 In the medium term (by year’s end) we
believe the wall of money, underpinned by
zero interest rates, will win the day and credit
spreads will be tighter than they are today.
However, for the next three months we think
markets are poised for a significant correction
(as articulated in The View – December
2009/January 2010).
􀀗 Some of the macro events as they have
unfolded over the past two months seem to
follow the stylised events that we predicted
and can serve as a catalyst for a correction.
We have seen that the financing challenges
facing Greece have increased EUR-USD
volatility. In Asia, investors reacted sharply to
China’s attempts to normalise monetary
conditions. In the US, concerns remain about
the sustainability of end demand as reflected
by the still high long-term unemployment rate
and weak new home sales data.
􀀗 The increase in risk aversion since the start of
2010 is evident in Asian equity indices, which
are down by between 4% and 9% in the year
to February. In Asian credit markets,
increased risk aversion can be seen from the
drop-off in primary issuance in February and
lower secondary trading volumes.
􀀗 Against such a backdrop, we recommend being
positioned defensively in the months ahead. In
the event a correction materialises we would
view it as a buying opportunity. In this regard
money flow data for emerging market bond
funds remains positive while weekly fund
flows from money market funds remained
negative for the past two months, suggesting
more support for credit markets. This is a
structural trend that will likely persist as long
as rates remain at zero, which we envisage to
be the case as we move into 2011.
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