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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲债券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：211
【目录或简介】：
In this month’s Overview, titled ‘Wall of money vs the wall of worry’, we highlight the discussion and
feedback we received from our recent interactions with investors in Asia, Europe and the US. The general
feedback is that there is a ‘wall of money’ that is being put to work in Asia despite rich valuations. The
‘wall of worry’ is mostly of our own making (and shared by a handful of investors); we anticipate a
scenario of increased currency and rates volatility that spills over to the credit markets, resulting in a
significant correction. Our visits with investors over the past two months have reinforced our view that
any pullback due to risk aversion will be significant, as investors are aggressively positioned for returns.
In the medium term (by year’s end) we believe the wall of money, underpinned by zero interest rates, will
win the day and that credit spreads will be tighter than they are today.
In ‘The Magnificent Seven’ – our top switch and pair trade ideas – we keep five recommendations from
last month and initiate two new pair trades for our portfolio: Buy Dah Sing 2020 vs Sell Henderson Land
2019, and Buy Country Garden 2014 vs Sell Evergrande 2015. As before, we identify the trades based on
our fundamental calls, macro and single-name views, and the application of our Credit Relative Value
Matrix. We close one earlier switch recommendation as it has reached our target: Buy EIBKOR 2014 vs
Sell KORELE 2014.
In ‘Defensive play’, we reiterate our near-term cautious approach on expectations of a potential market
correction. Relatively short-dated investment-grade securities are preferred due to their higher Asian
premium, better resilience to market volatility, and a bias for longer-dated supply in the primary market.
The Asian credit market moved sideways in February. The average Asian credit spread widened 3bp to
T+295bp by end-February for a total monthly return of 0.8%. The primary market recorded gross public
issuance of USD4.7bn in February, mainly from financial issuers.
In the Sovereign section this month, the focus is on Indonesia, which we think is ‘In the sweet spot’ from
a macro, currency and bond perspective. The country has successfully navigated through a difficult 2009,
with its sovereign external profile ending the year in a stronger position while its public sector finances
have come out relatively unscathed compared with its peer group. The smooth presidential and
parliamentary elections suggest a better chance of stalled reform legislation being pushed through, which
could help lift investment and trend growth in the years to come.
In the Credit Research section, we initiate coverage of Evergrande Real Estate (EVERRE; 3333.HK;
rated B1/BB/BB+, bond rated B1/BB-/BB+) with an Underweight fundamental recommendation and a
Sell trading call on EVERRE’15. We believe the group is growing ‘Too far, too fast’. We would
recommend selling EVERRE’15 outright or selling EVERRE’15/buying COGARD’14, for the spread
between EVERRE’15 and Country Garden’s COGARD’14 to widen to 300-350bp from 200bp in 12
months. We are concerned about the execution risk associated with the group’s rapid contracted sales
growth – from RMB1.7bn in 2006 to RMB30.3bn in 2009. Adherence to financial policies (minimum
unrestricted cash RMB4bn, EBITDA interest coverage not less than 5x) is also untested.
Overview 3
Credit Strategy 17
Focus List 34
Credit Review 43
Sovereign Risk Analysis 53
Monthly focus: Republic of Indonesia 54
People’s Republic of China 73
Hong Kong SAR 76
Republic of India 77
Republic of Korea 79
Republic of the Philippines 81
Republic of Singapore 89
Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka 90
Kingdom of Thailand 93
Socialist Republic of Vietnam 94
Company Report 95
Evergrande Real Estate 96
Company News & Analysis 111
Financial Institutions 112
Corporates 125
Asian Economics Desk
Reference 152
Asia Credit Coverage 156
Spread and Curve Charts 157
Appendix 165
HSBC Databank 166
Asian Yankee/Eurobond Secondary Trading Levels
as of 2/3/2010 184
Asian Rating Timeline 189
Disclosure appendix 196
Disclaimer 207
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