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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：54
【目录或简介】：
Capital concerns well priced in: Visibility on capital issues substantially
increased as more banks announced their capital raising plans, all of
which turned out to be a positive surprise to most investors. As we had
argued in the past few months, ROE dilution is generally modest, and
through rights issues (in some cases, partly debt issuance), actual size of
capital raising from the markets is much smaller than investors feared.
• Share prices stabilized post recent correction: Share prices stabilized in
the past one month (up 8% on unweighted basis) and reversed its relative
underperformance vs. MSCI China. Four H-share banks outperformed
MSCI China and the majority of A-share banks under coverage also
outperformed CSI300 index during the period, suggesting investors have
digested initial excessive concerns on tightening and capital raising.
• Results season may trigger more earnings upgrades: Consensus
estimates have experienced continued upgrades and are moving toward
our estimates. The gap further narrowed to about 8%. While overall
upgrades may not be significant, in some cases, we see significant revision
as the market may have been conservative on NIM and credit costs. We
believe 1Q10 NIM, in particular, could provide more optimism on 2010
earnings.
• Valuation support: At 2x 2010E PB and 10x 2010E P/E, valuations are
low. Current prices of many stocks in the sector imply zero or little value
for future growth. BOC-H, in particular, was trading below ex-growth fair
value. Bigger banks generally provide good yield too.
• Focus on bottom-up opportunities: We remain bullish on certain Hshares,
particularly BOC-H and Citic-H. Both offer 1) potentially
significant earnings upside surprises and thus scope for earnings upgrades,
2) material ROE improvement from 2010 onwards that they did not
previously experience and have yet to be appreciated by the market, 3)
attractive valuations.
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