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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球智能电网行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：96
【目录或简介】：
Electric utilities should resume investments in infrastructure as the economy
recovers, aided by the release of $3.4 billion of federal stimulus funds for Smart
Grid projects. On a global scale, the Smart Grid will be massive and complex,
there will be funding gaps and implementation setbacks, and there are companyspecific
risks associated with technology and execution, but we believe AMI
projects will accelerate in the U.S. in 2010 and start in Europe in 2011. We
continue to find the Smart Grip space attractive, and our top Smart Grid pure-play
picks for 2010 are EnerNOC (ENOC/OW) and Itron (ITRI/OW). The J.P. Morgan
Smart Grid Basket (Bloomberg: JPSMARTG), created by the J.P. Morgan Delta
One desk, leverages the themes discussed in this report.
• We believe the Smart Grid will look similar to the internet; it will be of
massive scale and complexity, drawing in suppliers from many industries.
The IEA predicts that $10 trillion will need to be invested in carbon
abatement technologies in developed nations over 20 years, and we believe a
large portion of the investment will go toward connecting new energy sources
to the grid, optimizing transmission and distribution, and enabling network
connectivity to billions of appliances, lighting, heating and HVAC systems,
hundreds of millions of grid components, homes, electric vehicles, and
businesses. The AMI upgrade alone could exceed $30 billion.
• In late 2009 the Department of Energy announced the distribution of $3.4
billion of funds for allocation to 100 smart grid projects that call for the
installation of about 18 million smart meters, representing ~13% of US homes.
The DoE expects ~$4.7 billion in private investment for the projects for total
spending of ~$8.1 billion. Aside from funding the targeted projects, the
decision removes an impediment to the decision process for utilities that did
not benefit.
• Security and standards will be key enablers of implementation. We are
encouraged by how quickly standards are being defined and embraced by
governments, utilities, auto OEMs, and appliance manufacturers. That said, we
expect a fragmented, heterogeneous implementation that will make investing
difficult.
• The JPSMARTG basket of stocks has traded down 3.8% in 2010,
underperforming the S&P 500 by ~650bp; however, the basket is up 58% over
the last 12 months. We believe the pullback in the basket suggests there are
opportunities in the Smart Grid space for investors to build positions in stocks
that offer concentrated exposure to investment activity in the Smart Grid.
• Our Applied Technology top pick pure plays in the Smart Grid are
Overweight-rated EnerNOC and Itron. EnerNOC, down 4.5% YTD, is the
leading provider of demand response solutions in North America. Itron, up
4.1%, is a leading supplier of meter solutions to the water, gas, and electricity
industries, globally.
Table of Contents
Portfolio Strategy .....................................................................4
Sustainable Energy a Critical Secular Story ................................................................4
Finding “Smart” Investments in Alternative Energy ...................................................4
Investment Thesis ....................................................................6
Smart Meter Projects – US.....................................................13
Transmission & Distribution: Outlook..................................16
Smart Meter Projects – International ....................................17
European Legislation .................................................................................................17
International Projects .................................................................................................17
Smart Grid Overview: Japan .................................................22
Electronics companies’ initiatives .............................................................................22
Smart grids as part of a renewable energy policy ......................................................22
Smart grids in Japan...................................................................................................23
Policies on reverse power flows.................................................................................23
Power system simulator .............................................................................................23
Smart meters in Japan ................................................................................................24
Smart homes and home energy management systems ...............................................24
Regulatory Environment – United States .............................26
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)......................................................26
FERC Report..............................................................................................................26
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009..................................................28
U.S. Department of Energy Tax Credits ....................................................................34
Smart Grid and Smart Meter Standards ...............................35
NIST Standards..........................................................................................................36
AMI Security .............................................................................................................37
The Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) .................................41
ZigBee Alliance .........................................................................................................44
Electric Vehicles and Grid Infrastructure ..................................................................46
The J.P. Morgan Smart Grid Basket......................................51
Basket Methodology and Composition......................................................................51
Basket Performance ...................................................................................................52
Top Picks – ENOC/OW and ITRI/OW.....................................55
Itron, Inc (ITRI/Overweight)....................................................58
Company Description ................................................................................................58
Investment Thesis ......................................................................................................58
Valuation and Rating Analysis ..................................................................................58
Risks to Our Rating and Price Target ........................................................................59
EnerNOC Inc. (ENOC/Overweight) ........................................60
Company Description ................................................................................................60
Investment Thesis ......................................................................................................60
Valuation and Rating Analysis ..................................................................................61
Risks to Our Rating and Price Target ........................................................................61
Echelon Corporation (ELON/Neutral) ...................................63
Company Description ................................................................................................63
Investment Thesis ......................................................................................................63
Valuation and Rating Analysis ..................................................................................64
Risks to Our Rating and Price Target ........................................................................65
ESCO Technologies (ESE/Underweight) ..............................66
Company Description ................................................................................................66
Investment Thesis ......................................................................................................66
Valuation and Rating Analysis ..................................................................................66
Risks to Our Rating and Price Target ........................................................................67
Demand Response......................................................................................................79
Energy Efficiency ......................................................................................................81
Appendix I: Company Profiles...............................................68
Appendix II: Electricity Demand Side Management ............79
Appendix III: Smart Meters ....................................................82
Appendix IV: C&I Demand Response ...................................84
Appendix V: Smart Grid Technologies Overview................86
Appendix VI: Glossary ...........................................................88
Appendix VII: Utilities’ Awareness of Vendors ....................90
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