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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本智能电网与光伏行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：31
【目录或简介】：
Elec. power: Smart Grids
Smart Grids and the costs of Solar
Power
Tomohiro Jikihara
Research Analyst
(+81) 03 5156-6732
tomohiro.jikihara@db.com
Smart grid costs (cumulative) to total ¥5,093bn in 2030
We have calculated the approximate costs required for electric power companies
to modify systems to accommodate a significant rise in the number of households
using solar-source energy. Excluding battery cell costs, smart grid costs are within
the range of normal capex. However, battery acquisition costs will be no small
burden for electric power companies. Although conventional wisdom assumes
batteries will be needed, we revisit this assumption and suggest that alternatives
for system stabilization should be examined.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Chubu Electric Power (9502.T),¥2,390 Buy
Tohoku Electric Power (9506.T),¥1,961 Buy
Companies featured
Tokyo Electric Power (9501.T),¥2,489 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) -62 104 162
P/E (x) – 24.0 15.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.5 9.4 8.3
Chubu Electric Power (9502.T),¥2,390 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) -24 125 130
P/E (x) – 19.2 18.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.4 8.2 8.0
Kansai Electric Power (9503.T),¥2,138 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) -9 113 89
P/E (x) – 18.8 24.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 8.3 8.2
Tohoku Electric Power (9506.T),¥1,961 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) -63 55 86
P/E (x) – 35.6 22.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 8.6 7.8
Kyushu Electric Power (9508.T),¥2,024 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 72 79 81
P/E (x) 31.8 25.8 25.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.8 8.9 8.7
J-POWER (9513.T),¥3,075 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 117 124 199
P/E (x) 30.3 24.9 15.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 11.3 10.0
Tokyo Gas (9531.T),¥398 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 15 21 25
P/E (x) 27.3 19.4 16.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6.6 5.7
Osaka Gas (9532.T),¥329 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 17 23 19
P/E (x) 22.3 14.6 17.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 6.6 6.1
Global Markets Research Company
Definition of smart grid for the purposes of this report
In this report, a smart grid in Japan is defined as “an electric power network
capable of accommodating a large-scale input of new energy.” Related costs are
capital expenditures for the network associated with this large-scale input of new
energy. Equipment required for Japan’s smart grid includes batteries, switchgear,
transformers, smart meters, and communication lines.
Increased solar generation volume, system augmentation necessary
The government is, from a policy perspective, supporting policies to promote the
spread of solar power generation to realize a low-carbon society. Electric power
companies have to purchase excess solar power generated by households.
Reverse power flow within the grid is already occurring (p. 2), and to the extent
that the volume of solar power generated by households and input into the grid
rises in the future, fluctuations in the electric power volume within the electric
power grid will be exaggerated by changes in weather and are expected to exceed
the capacity of the current system. The existing power supply system will have to
be modified.
Composition of smart grid-related costs (cumulative) as of 2030
Our calculation is as follows: (1) batteries, ¥2,512.1bn, (2) switchgear, ¥224.2bn,
(3) transformers, ¥742.6bn, (4) smart meters, ¥1,076.1bn, and (5) communication
lines, ¥538.0bn, for a total of ¥5,093.0bn.
Will batteries really be necessary?
Battery acquisition costs will be no small burden for electric power companies. It
is possible that these costs can be passed on through electric power rates.
Nevertheless, the question remains: will batteries really be necessary? We see
alternatives that deserve consideration, including: (1) closer cooperation among
the electric power companies. For example, when there are large amounts of
reverse solar power flow in the Kyushu region, some power could be transmitted
to regions with a large electricity consumption capacity, and (2) measures to
reduce power station utilization rates when large amounts of reverse current are
generated from solar power within a region.
Valuation and risk
We base our valuation on an EV/EBITDA multiple. In instances where multiples
declined markedly due to a correction in the electric power sector, we used
dividend yields. We use weighted averages in both cases for the five majors we
cover. Upside risks include: (1) the economy recovering more rapidly than
expected and (2) power demand from industry not declining as much as expected.
Downside risks include a dip in nuclear power utilization. (Details, p. 3.)
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