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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本啤酒行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
Action: We upgrade our rating for Kirin Holdings, and raise our TPs and
revise our forecasts for both it and Asahi Breweries. We believe now is a good
time to accumulate Kirin shares, based on two catalysts discussed below.
Kirin Holdings (2503): OUTPERFORM (from Neutral), TP ¥1,700 (from
¥1,350) (32% potential upside)
Asahi Breweries (2502): NEUTRAL, TP ¥2,000 (from ¥1,750) (13%
potential upside)
■
Catalysts: The lag with Asahi is likely to disappear. Since The Nikkei
announced the planned merger between Kirin and Suntory on 13 July 2009,
Kirin’s shares have underperformed TOPIX food stocks by 9%, while Asahi’s
shares have outperformed by 18%. The market preferred Asahi because of
its investment in China, rather than Kirin, following the disappointment of the
breakdown of its merger talks. However: (1) we expect Kirin’s ROIC to
improve to 11.1% in FY12/12, on par with Asahi’s 10.6%, as its past M&A
activity starts to bear fruit; and (2) while Kirin’s shares are trading at a
nominal FY12/12E P/E of 16x, after adjusting for goodwill, the P/E is 10x.
The shares of Asahi, which has been involved in M&A on a smaller scale,
are trading at a nominal P/E of 13x (adjusted P/E of 11x). We expect
attention to refocus on Kirin’s de-facto undervalued shares when IFRS
(international financial reporting standards) are introduced.
■
Risks for Kirin’s shares: (1) Further M&A activity could have a temporary
negative impact on profitability and capital efficiency. (2) A strong yen versus
the Australian dollar is a negative.
■
Switch valuation reference year to FY12/12: We still use adjusted P/E and
ROIC of the seven global brewery majors Credit Suisse covers (global beer)
to calculate our TPs, but in view of expected mid-term ROIC improvement,
we switch the reference year in our valuation from FY12/10 to FY12/12. As
we expect an improvement in Kirin’s ROIC and EPS growth to exceed the
global beer majors average, the fair-value share price rises from ¥1,320
based on FY12/10E to ¥1,700 based on FY12/12E.
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