2010年3月马来西亚橡胶手套行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月马来西亚橡胶手套行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：
Action
Despite soaring an average of 300% (vs the market’s 48% rise), leading rubber
glove stocks still imply 25-40% upside, in our view. The risks of overcapacity and
margin squeeze are unlikely to unfold in the next 12 months. Attractive valuations
of up to a 46% discount to market P/E, coupled with strong earnings growth
prospects over the next four quarters, support our investment calls.
􀁡 Catalysts
Latent demand from China, India and possible US healthcare reform remain
potential re-rating catalysts.
Anchor Themes
With no imminent risks, the glove sector looks set to benefit from another year of
strong growth. Companies with exposure to faster-growing markets, diversified
revenue bases and efficient cost structures are our top picks.
Another good stretch
􀁣 A strong year ahead
Supplier pricing power remains evident moving into 2010F, as demand stays
strong. We see the current three-five month backlogs and high latex prices
continuing to drive higher average selling prices in 2010F. Demand risk for the year
remains minimal, in our view.
􀁤 Too early to worry about industry glut
Valuations are still at depressed levels, partly on concerns over potential industry
overcapacity in 2011F. Such low valuations, we believe, are unwarranted; any
potential glut should not happen before 2011F. At current low valuations, we
believe demand assumptions by the Street have yet to reflect anticipated recovery
in the US (our US team forecasts 3.1% growth in 2010F vs -2.4% in 2009, per our
US Economic Weekly, 5 March, 2010) and global economies, driven by strong
growth in emerging Asia. As such, it is too early to be concerned about industry
overcapacity, in our view.
􀁥 Malaysia — largest glove producer in the world
Malaysia controls 65% of global capacity, achieved through a combination of
proximity to key raw materials, infrastructure, painstaking R&D, development of
supporting industries and support from government agencies. This nexus has been
two decades in the making and is a hard advantage to trump, in our view.
􀁦 Valuing based on P/E
We value glove stocks using a P/E methodology, underpinned by strong earnings
visibility. After 40-50% EPS growth in FY09E, we expect rubber glove companies
to post between 9% and 26% EPS CAGRs over the next three years. At
7.8-11.6x FY11F, P/E valuations remain at compelling levels vs the market and
other companies on Nomura’s Buy list, in our view. Given Malaysia’s market
leadership in the global glove market, we think this presents a unique investment
theme backed by strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations.

Contents
Executive summary 3
A strong year ahead 5
Catalysts for further re-rating 6
Too early to worry about industry glut 9
Current strong demand mitigates overcapacity risk 9
Consensus is pricing in a moderate cost increase 10
Malaysia — largest glove producer in the world 13
Malaysia’s comparative advantage — luck or hard work? 13
Malaysia glove valuations — a unique local story 16
Latest company views
Top Glove Corporation Berhad 18
Supermax Corporation Berhad 26
Kossan Rubber Industries Berhad 35
Non-rated nuggets
Hartalega Holdings Berhad 42
Latexx Partners Berhad 44
Adventa Berhad 46

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 马来西亚 行业研究 Overcapacity 研究报告 行业 橡胶 马来西亚 手套

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