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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国航天军工行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：41
【目录或简介】：
Duopoly Under Siege
Narrowbody is All the Rage: Everyone is talking about the evolution of the
single-aisle or “narrowbody” market for airliners with 100 to 200 seats. This
makes sense since the past two product cycles focused on regional jets (<100
seats) and widebodies (>200). But, Airbus and Boeing are no longer alone with
new entrants coming from Canada’s Bombardier, China’s COMAC, and others.
Conflicting Agendas at Work: Airlines seek better fuel efficiency and lower op.
expense, but want to minimize capital costs and dispatch interruptions. Lessors
seek to offer the latest designs without pressuring existing fleet values. Engine
suppliers have varied views based on their current mkt share (or lack thereof).
A Prisoner’s Dilemma Develops: Thus, Airbus and Boeing are challenged to
deliver meaningful incremental efficiencies using available technology, without
eroding large backlogs of today’s 737s and A320s, and can each choose to reengine,
start fresh or do nothing.
We are Generally Underwhelmed: Airbus seems willing to move forward with
a modest evolution of A320 that would likely be offered as an option within the
current product line. Given the late 1990s introduction of the 737-NG, we think
BA has less to gain without a more substantial upgrade to its aircraft, and see it
as more likely to pass on a re-engine or offer a modest upgrade option, and
then accelerate a clean sheet effort. We see China’s C919 as a teething a/c
that will likely do little more than take some local share from the incumbents,
although its effort can set the table for a more competitive aircraft next time. We
think this leaves Bombardier’s C-Series as the most technically advanced of the
bunch, although its target market (100-149 seats) seems quite narrow.
Engine Suppliers Differ Widely on Strategy: P&W is moving full throttle with
its geared-turbofan given its minimal share in the current production market and
limited downside. RR.L, with a strong widebody position, is more relaxed, and
seems inclined to skip this round and instead develop more efficient open-rotor
technology that may be commercially viable in about a decade. CFMI (GE &
Safran) is taking an iterative view, planning incremental improvements to CFM-
56 over the next few years with a potential look to open rotor at a later date.
Regarding the Stocks: Today, we think Bombardier (BBD.B) and UTX have
upside with the C-series, due to nearest deployment date (2013/2014) and use
of clean sheet technology. UTX could benefit again if A320 re-engines with GTF
(or an IAE variant) as we expect. If Boeing skips a re-engine outright, or offers
as a modest upgrade option, rather than investing more heavily, it could reduce
R&D more than anticipated in the near-term, but could also accelerate a clean
sheet effort in the mid-term. GE/Snecma’s CFM JV with COMAC is a smart
move to protect its dominant market share, but we do view such high share as
vulnerable over the long-term.
L/T Negative for Airbus and Boeing: Historically, the key driver of shareprices
in the aerospace sector is order flow. Over time, the new entrants will
drain orders from Airbus and Boeing while creating new, albeit smaller
opportunities for suppliers. But ultimately, the added competition will pressure
industry pricing and margins for everyone.
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