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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲建材行业研究报告
【作者】：荷兰国际集团
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：229
【目录或简介】：
Contents
Cracking 1
Investment case 3
Summary 5
Stock summaries 11
Valuation 14
Outlook: no visibility 20
Margin headwinds 40
Companies 57
Lafarge ....................................................................................................................59
CRH.........................................................................................................................73
Saint-Gobain ...........................................................................................................87
HeidelbergCement ..................................................................................................99
Holcim ...................................................................................................................111
Buzzi Unicem ........................................................................................................125
Titan Cement.........................................................................................................137
Wolseley................................................................................................................149
Travis Perkins........................................................................................................161
Wienerberger.........................................................................................................173
Country Databank 185
Appendices 223
Appendix A ............................................................................................................224
Appendix B ............................................................................................................225
Disclosures Appendix 226
Cracking
Cracking: stay UNDERWEIGHT and SELL Lafarge
The market is pricing in trough earnings for 2010 and a recovery to peak margins next
year. We think this is too optimistic given zero visibility and the potentially disastrous
impact on margins of negative operational gearing. Balance sheet strain will also reemerge
as a theme as the recovery is pushed out and cement prices fall, in our view.
We UNDERWEIGHT the sector and put a top SELL on Lafarge, with >30% downside.
No trough in sight
The market began to price in a cyclical upturn in 2H09, but the recent results season
was disappointing, especially with regard to stimulus spending and top-line recovery.
Management is ultra-cautious, macro data is inconsistent, and history suggests an
early rebound is unlikely from such a severe downturn. With visibility near zero, we do
not expect sector demand to reach a trough until end-2010 at the earliest.
Mounting pressure on margins
In addition to sluggish volumes, pricing is coming under pressure, especially in
cement. We forecast cement prices to fall 2.4% globally in 2010. Input costs are also
rising in cement, glass and aggregates, and cost-cutting has all but completed. We cut
heavyside EPS forecasts by 16% in 2010F and 26% for 2011F. Our numbers are 14%
below consensus, with additional downside risk if prices fall further. Downgrades will
act as a headwind, as will renewed concern about balance sheets. Net debt/EBITDA is
2.6x, at the top end of comfortable levels and limiting tolerance to further downgrades.
Valuation: too optimistic given low visibility
The heavyside names are trading on mid-cycle multiples of 12x PER and 6.4x
EV/EBITDA by 2011F. We think this is premature given weaker margins, downgrade
risk, low visibility and concern over balance sheets. We downgrade Lafarge, Saint
Gobain and Holcim. Lafarge is our top SELL (>30% downside). The lightside names
trade on a 15% discount to mid-cycle. We see them as better value on a relative basis
and upgrade Wolseley, Travis Perkins and Wienerberger.
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