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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚黄金行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
Gold Forum Feedback: Morgan Stanley held its
inaugural gold forum on Thursday March 18. The
following report provides key points from each of the
presenters on the day. We have also included a copy of
Morgan Stanley’s presentation on the day.
Key Themes from Gold Miners who Presented
Include: A strong push for continued production growth,
either organically or via M&A. Producers have a positive
view on the gold price and are therefore reducing unit
cash costs to maximise cash margins. Strong gold price
providing incentive for miners to develop the
underexplored Asia/Pacific region and grow gold
resource bases.
Large Cap Gold Miners vs Gold Price: Since 2000,
only the Asia/Pacific component of the FTSE Gold Index
(includes large cap gold miners) has outperformed the
gold price (refer to Exhibit 1). This is despite the gold
price increasing nearly 300% since the start of 2000.
Reasons for the underperformance include the
emergence of gold ETF’s (~2003), fewer large gold
discoveries therefore reducing the option value of gold
equities, and profitability of gold equities that has not
increased in-line with the gold price.
Future Trends for Large Cap Gold Miners: In our view,
Asia/Pacific gold miners are likely to continue to
outperform the gold price, due to high volume growth
and favorable unit costs. This includes our Overweight
recommendation Newcrest. The current trend for other
large cap global gold miners suggests continued
underperformance compared to the gold price, due to
limited growth and cash cost pressures.
Selective Small Cap Gold Miners to Outperform:
Competitive pressures in the gold industry are
increasing, which is likely to lead to premium price
acquisitions of juniors, in our view. This implies that
small cap gold miners are the most likely area where
value accretion will occur. Therefore for investors, it is
critical to find small cap gold miners with assets that
have further growth potential and are low cost.
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