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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月澳大利亚工程承建商行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：41
【目录或简介】：
This is the fourth installment of our Aussie Contractors Survey. Once
again, we set about trying to gauge contractors' thoughts about expected
operating conditions over the next 12mths, with a particular focus on
expected profitability and changes in work-in-hand (WIH). Of the 111
contractors we spoke to, we also asked specific questions about what they
are seeing in terms of project deferrals and cancellations and changes in
their ability to obtain credit (bonds, bank guarantees etc).
• The results of this Survey suggest the industry is turning a corner of sorts.
This is largely driven by an increasing number of contractors expecting
rising levels of WIH over the coming year. However, profit margin
expectations remain suitably subdued reflecting the impact of more
competitive tendering recently.
• For us, the key takeaways from the survey include 1) large contractors
(including the ASX-listed contractors) are, on balance, expecting
improving business conditions, 2) the majority of contractors are still
experiencing project deferrals, 3) most contractors expect to benefit from
government stimulus programs, 4) credit conditions remain tight, but are
thawing, and 5) an increasing number of contractors are already
experiencing a shortage of skilled labour.
• Our “Contractors’ Expectations Index” (shown in Figures 3-5) gives a
clear graphical representation of the turnaround in expected industry
conditions. Large contractors now, on balance, expect business conditions
to improve over the coming 12mths, underpinned by rising WIH and
stable and/or rising profit margins. Small contractors continue to be more
bearish than their larger counterparts largely due to very competitive
industry conditions right now.
• Other points of interest include – 1) very few contractors have seen
previously deferred or cancelled projects re-started by clients, 2)
expectations of a looming skilled labour shortage are growing, although
expectations remain well below 2008 levels, and 3) the last 6mths have
seen a dramatic rebound in the number of contractors expecting to increase
the size of their workforce over the coming year.
• We believe a key driver of the recent re-rating of the Australian Contractor
stocks has been expectations of improved business conditions in the
coming year. The empirical evidence from our Survey appears to support
the view of equity markets. Following this re-rating, it is harder to identify
significant absolute valuation upside in the sector, but we continue to
prefer DOW over UGL, TSE, MND and LEI.
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