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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月马来西亚证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：58
【目录或简介】：
Action
This is it! From a positive macro-economic recovery story to earnings upgrade
cycles at the company level, all factors are pointing to a favourable outlook for the
Malaysian stock market. A positive earnings upgrade cycle should continue to drive
shares. Additional catalysts could come from further reform and liberalisation.
Anchor themes
Earnings surprises will likely continue to drive share prices. Consensus earnings
upgrades are likely to continue into 1Q and 2Q10.
Taking a cue from past post-crisis rallies and earnings upgrade cycles, we remain
Bullish. We believe an economic recovery should continue to underpin earnings
upgrades, supported by the ongoing stimulus spending, but from a regional
perspective Malaysia could lag, as cyclical markets elsewhere offer better returns.
Malaysia Boleh #10: This is it!
􀁣 Positive macro story
After contracting 2.1% in 2009, real GDP growth is expected to rebound to 5.5% in
2010 and level off to 5.2% in 2011. A strong 4Q recovery of +4.5% y-y saw Bank
Negara Malaysia (BNM) raising its rates by 25bps on 4 March in its Monetary
Policy Committee meeting. The latest move by the central bank supports our view
that the recovery is firmly on track.
􀁤 An expensive but defensive market
The most common feedback about Malaysia is that the market is not cheap. Owing
to the huge accumulated current account surpluses and the large pool of liquidity
that’s largely trapped in the system, the market will remain expensive, in our view.
􀁥 Positive earnings revision cycle
We remain positive on the market supported by a favourable earnings revision
cycle. Consensus started to turn positive in May 2009. After the 1997-98 crisis, the
earnings upgrade cycle lasted about 18 months. The earnings upgrades post the
2001 tech-led recession went on for 13 months. Judging from the previous
upgrade cycles, we still see upside to the current earnings upgrade cycle.
􀁦 Investment strategy
This is it! From a positive macro-economic recovery story to earnings upgrade
cycles at the company level, all factors are pointing to a favourable outlook for the
Malaysian stock market. Additional catalysts could come from positive surprises in
the soon-to-be announced New Economic Model. We are overweighting the banks,
contractors, media and the healthcare sectors. However, we continue to
underweight the planters.
Contents
Positive macro story 3
Strong recovery of 4Q09 sustaining into 2010 3
Malaysia: deregulation should boost services 4
Structural challenges 4
An expensive but defensive market 7
Significant cumulative current account balance 7
Portfolio flows 8
Positive earnings revisions cycle 9
Past cycles suggest more upside 9
Most sectors to record positive growth in 2010 10
Investment strategy 11
Valuations 11
Market outlook – clues from history 12
Sector strategy 13
Stock picks 14
Latest company views
AMMB Holdings 17
Axiata Group Berhad 20
Berjaya Sports Toto 23
Bursa Malaysia 26
IJM Corp 29
IOI Corporation 32
Kuala Lumpur Kepong 35
Malayan Banking 38
Media Prima 41
Sime Darby 44
Tanjong plc 47
Top Glove Corporation 50
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