瑞士信贷：美国物流行业研究报告2009年7月

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Heard on 24th Street
SECTOR REVIEW
Industrial Economy Positioned to Improve;
Consumer Still Under Pressure
■
As we approach the second half of summer, transport companies typically
look for a seasonal up-tick in volumes – mostly driven by the consumer.
Peak season generally begins in mid-August, in large part due to inventory
restocking at retailers for the back to school season. Later in the year, freight
volumes are traditionally lifted in preparation of the holiday season.
■
However, transport companies have not seen anything close to a “normal”
peak season since 2005. This begs the question, what will 2009 peak freight
season look like? Our Heard on 24th Street sector analysis suggests that the
transports are likely to be disappointed yet again.
■
Our thesis rests upon our view that the consumer is not likely to recover in
the near-term, which is based on the following freight data and macroindicators:
o worsening import volumes at West Coast ports
o weak railroad international intermodal volumes
o declining truck tonnage
o rising unemployment rate
o slowing retail sales
o increasing consumer savings rate
■
Concurrently, our outlook for the industrial economy is modestly more
favorable than that of the consumer in the near-to-intermediate term.
Specifically, we think the industrial economy stands to benefit from a
sequential up-tick in both auto and steel production – which in turn should
drive up demand for iron ore, met coal, chemicals, plastics, glass and other
raw materials.
■
In revisiting our sub-sector consumer exposure analysis from our transport
initiation report, we remind investors that the railroads are the least exposed
to the consumer (not surprisingly, they haul all of the raw materials
mentioned above). At the same time, truckload and airfreight carriers are the
most heavily weighted toward the consumer.
■
Bottom line: We reiterate our negative stance on the trucking and air freight
sectors (including Underperform rated WERN, KNX, and UPS) and
recommend that investors take a more constructive view on the railroad
sector (including Outperform rated UNP and NSC).

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