2010年3月澳大利亚电信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：69
        【目录或简介】：
the industry to a tipping point in 2009 with Mobile now exceeding Fixed revenues. The GFC confirmed rather
unequivocally that Fixed line in is in fact significantly less defensive than Mobile (+9% growth). Behavioural
changes accelerating- the long term trends towards wireless only and IP services supported by unbundling
activity (ULL/LSS= 15% of total lines) have accelerated in 2009 causing a meaningful step-up in fixed line
attrition. Slowly but surely, disruptive technologies are making inroads in the Australian market.
• Competitive environment- the Monolith eroding (very) slowly. Whilst its total share of the market is slowly
eroding (-1%), Telstra remains the monolith of the Telco industry (JPMe- 72% fixed market share). Only a
flawless execution on the NBN is likely to ever change that. Optus had a solid year in mobile, clawing back
revenue share by reinvesting margins. The most active ‘unbundlers’ (IIN & TPG) finally had a meaningful
impact in the residential broadband market, both gaining subscriber share, mostly from Telstra.
• Implications for stocks under coverage- Telstra: NBN overhang aside, Telstra’s operational issues quantified
in this report are likely to require time and margins to be addressed. Whilst Mobile is fixable, consumer
behavioural changes hurting Fixed Telephony & Broadband will be harder to contain in our view. Singtel
Optus: representing 30% of Singtel SoTP, Optus is currently having a one in every five years growth spurt in
mobile. IIN: the organic and M&A growth story is still compelling in our view. TEL: AAPT continued revenue
headwinds persist but the business profitability is improving, arguably from a rather low base historically.

Table of content
Implications for stocks under coverage.................................4
Executive summary..................................................................6
Part 1: Total Telecom (Fixed and mobile)...............................9
Telco industry retail revenue growth +3.8%.........................10
Fixed line revenue decline -0.9% in CY09 ............................11
Mobile retail revenue growth +9% in CY09...........................12
Total revenue market shares.................................................13
Fixed Line retail market Shares ............................................15
Mobile market shares.............................................................16
Fixed-to-Mobile substitution accelerating............................17
Fixed Line attrition- Key drivers............................................18
Fixed EBITDA margins...........................................................19
Fixed corporate vs retail ........................................................20
Part 2: Broadband market......................................................21
Broadband Penetration and Growth .....................................22
Broadband subscriber Market Share....................................24
Incumbent's broadband market share- International benchmarks 27
Local Loop Unbundling (ULL and LSS)................................28
Broadband ARPU ...................................................................29
Broadband Technology mix and trends...............................30
Part 3: Mobile market .............................................................31
Industry revenue growth........................................................32
Australian Mobile vs Developed World- The Australian exception 33
Total Mobile Revenue Market Share .....................................34
Service Revenue Market Share .............................................35
Wireless data & Wireless broadband....................................36
3G Migration ...........................................................................38
SIO Market Shares..................................................................39
Share of SIO Net Adds ...........................................................40
Subscriber Acquisition Cost and Margins ...........................41
Mobile ARPUs.........................................................................42
Notes on our Methodology ....................................................43

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