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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲内存行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：94
【目录或简介】：
1
TMT
Memory Devices Technology
22 March 2010
abc
Longer industry outlook - strong up cycle continues into 2011
Strong 2010~11f revenue growth... We forecast 2009/12f DRAM revenue CAGR of c19% on bit
growth of c36% and ASP decline of c12% for the period. NAND is set to grow faster as nascent and new
applications for solid-state storage soars; we forecast 2009/12f NAND revenue CAGR of c28% on bit
growth of c77% and ASP decline of c28%. By 2012f, we forecast DRAM plus NAND revenues to almost
double to cUSD65.1bn, with NAND almost reaching a similar level as DRAM.
Demand pull. We expect demand-driven recovery on global recovery and improving PC sales led by
corporate spend recovery starting in earnest in 2H10. We also expect structural demand growth from the
rise of a new generation of devices – tablets and smart phones – as a key driver of DRAM and NAND.
Accordingly, we think risks of unfavourable supply-demand imbalance for 2010~11 are low.
Restrained supply on rational competition. Currently bit supply is limited following the elimination of
inefficient 200mm capacity, plus the capex ‘freeze’ for the past two years. Going forward, we expect
rational competition to prevail as makers remain uncertain over demand recovery strength, and due to a
more consolidated industry. For the next two years at least, we expect measured wafer capacity expansion
as vendors add capacity incrementally in-line with demand growth. Capacity growth will remain focussed
on process migration, which also enhances profitability and product competitiveness. The risk of a major
player starting a ‘bit war’ is receding as the DRAM industry has effectively restructured into four major
blocks; Elpida and Micron tying up with Taiwanese players to form competitive DRAM alliances. But
limited supply of immersion lithography equipment – necessary to migrate to 5xnm and below – could
cap bit growth.
…Ahead of higher capex … Partly motivating vendors’ profitability-focused strategy is higher capex
starting this year to meet the continuing demand surge, and a desire to maintain/expand market share. We
forecast global DRAM capex to rise 78% (off a very low base) this year, rising only c7% in 2011f before
rising another 25% in 2012f. We forecast global NAND capex to rise 131% in 2011, following a 69%
increase this year. Somewhat reassuringly, for DRAM we expect 2010~11f capex/sales to remain below
Summary
30% compared to an average in the 40%s (peaked at 70% in 2007) between 2003~08. For NAND we
expect 2010f capex to be at similar levels, rising to c45% next year to address an acute supply shortage,
compared to historical average well above 50% between 2005~08. We expect leaders to pursue even finer
process nodes, but this will require expensive new processes such as EUV given current technology
limitations. Alternatively, they may choose to build new wafer fabs. Players such as Micron and Inotera
can rely on bit capacity gains by migrating out-sourced wafer suppliers to smaller nodes, but on existing
technologies.
…Improving profitability.... In the meantime, strong demand (high bit growth) and tight supply-demand
(firmer ASPs) on rational competition is shifting up the profitability curve for all manufacturers. We
expect marginal players to be mildly profitable from being mostly loss-making last year, while leading
makers will be more very profitable, with the latter’s operating margins in the c30~40% range.
Valuations, ratings 6
Industry snapshot, themes 10
Supply drivers - DRAM 17
Supply drivers - NVM 20
Demand drivers - DRAM 24
Demand drivers – NVM 33
Company profiles 45
Elpida Memory (6665) 46
Hynix Semiconductor (000660) 53
Inotera Memories (3474) 61
Nanya Technology (2408) 66
Samsung Electronics (005930) 71
Winbond (2344) 79
Disclosure appendix 87
Disclaimer 90
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