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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月哈萨克斯坦银行业研究报告
【作者】：ATON
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：69
【目录或简介】：
Broaden exposure to a CIS financials recovery: We extend our coverage to Kazakh
banks. The Kazakh banking system, which entered crisis mode in 3Q07, a year earlier
than Russia, has demonstrated a more severe balance sheet contraction and higher
growth in NPLs. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan’s economy has continued to grow, but has
seen a sharp slowdown. However, our economics team is upbeat on the Kazakh
economy, which they expect to gain support from higher oil prices and a rebound in
disposable income. As such, we forecast Kazakhstan’s real GDP to grow at a 4.3% CAGR
over 2010‐12 and the country’s banks to benefit from a revival in economic activity.
Like their Russian peers, we expect Kazakh banks to benefit from a reduced need for
provisioning but to feel pressure on margins. We forecast provisioning charges
recognised via the P&L to come down from 5‐8% in 2009 to 3‐5% in 2010E and reach
1.5‐2% in 2011E. On the margins side, we expect downward pressure at the sector
level as we anticipate easing credit risk to encourage banks to lend at lower rates. That
said, we believe each individual bank’s ability to resist this pressure will depend on its
balance sheet structure. Overall, we forecast the RoE of the banks covered in this
report to pick up from single‐digit levels towards 20% over 2010‐11E.
Kazakh banks likely to lag Russian banks in terms of loan growth. First, we see more
scope for deleveraging in Kazakhstan, where the aggregate loan/deposit ratio is
around 160% vs 96% in Russia. Second, Kazakh banks have accumulated more bad
debt during the crisis and resolving these problems remains an ongoing issue. Third,
around 60% of sector loans are foreign currency denominated, while we expect the
local currency to strengthen against the dollar over 2010‐12E. Last but not least, the
Kazakh regulators have rolled out a series of tough new restrictions on the country’s
banks in an attempt to ward off a return to the pre‐crisis mode of breakneck growth
funded with international debt.
The environment favours less leveraged and more liquid banks: Halyk Bank (BUY,
$12.5) and Bank CenterCredit (BUY, $6.9). Both banks have loan/deposit ratios of
under 100% and liquidity cushions of nearly 40% of their respective balance sheets.
This should translate into less appetite for deposits (unlike many of their peers) and
the flexibility to introduce more substantial rate cuts. Similarly, these banks can boost
loan growth simply by freeing up excess liquidity, to the benefit of their average asset
yield. We therefore believe that Halyk Bank and Bank CenterCredit are relatively well
positioned in terms of both growth prospects and net interest margin resistance to
sector‐wide pressures.
KKB (HOLD, $10.4) is our less preferred alternative between the two London‐listed
GDRs. Compared to its key peer Halyk Bank, KKB is significantly more leveraged (172%
estimated loan/deposit ratio at YE09), has less scope to improve its asset mix to
protect its NIM (loans already constitute 87% of assets) and is more likely to
experience further asset quality deterioration, in our view. Hence we believe that
KKB’s 25% P/BV discount to Halyk Bank is justified by the difference in fundamentals.
Contents
Investment Summary...........................................................................................3
Valuations and ratings................................................................................................ 9
International peer group comparison ...................................................................... 11
Risks to our fair values and ratings .......................................................................... 13
Macroeconomic Environment ...........................................................................14
The Banking Sectors Compared: Kazakhstan vs Russia .....................................16
Regulatory Climate.............................................................................................20
Sector Concentration and Segment Breakdown................................................23
KKB, Halyk Bank and BCC: Three Sides to the Kazakh Banking Crisis ................26
Forecasts ............................................................................................................33
Risks to Our Forecasts........................................................................................38
Valuation and Ratings ........................................................................................41
The Banks ...........................................................................................................44
KKB. .......................................................................................................................... 44
Halyk Bank................................................................................................................ 52
Bank CenterCredit. ................................................................................................... 60
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