2010年3月欧洲新能源行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲新能源行业研究报告
        【作者】：CENTROBANCA
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：80
        【目录或简介】：
Let the sunshine in
We initiate coverage of renewable energy stocks with Buy ratings
for Alerion (EUR0.67 target price) and ERG Renew (EUR1.06
target price) and Hold ratings for ErgyCapital (EUR0.82 target
price) and TerniEnergia (EUR4.2 target price). The medium term
outlook should be positive for Italian renewable energy companies
as they benefit from a favourable regulatory framework: the
„Green Certificate‰, which covers all renewable sources except
solar power and the „Conto Energia‰ (solar power). These
guarantee incentive tariffs which are among the highest in
Europe.
> In 2009, total installed wind capacity reached 4,850MW (a CAGR
>30% in 2003-09), making Italy the third largest market in Europe
with expected double digit growth in the future. The photovoltaic
(PV) market is believed to have grown to 900MW in 2009 making
it the second in Europe for new capacity installed; the EPIA
forecasts a CAGR of >70% in the period 2008-2013.
> The companies we cover, all positioned downstream in the value
chain (in system integration and in power generation), should
benefit from this „high-growth‰ scenario and should generate
strong revenues (revenues CAGR09-12e >40%) and profitability
(EBITDA CAGR09-12e >90%).
> In the wind energy sector, we initiate coverage of Alerion with a
Buy rating as i) the ambitious but achievable targets set out in the
business plan are being successfully implemented by management
ii) the companyÊs news flow should remain positive iii) there is
speculative appeal in the medium term. We also rate ERG Renew
a Buy because of i) increased visibility on development ii) the
commitment of the parent company, ERG, to growing in the
renewable business iii) potential for a valuation rerating.
> In the PV sector, we appreciate i) TerniEnergiaÊs strategy of
exploiting synergies in the system integration and power
generation businesses ii) its excellent execution. However, the
YTD share price rally has left the stock fully valued - hence our
Hold rating.
> We are more cautious about ErgyCapital: its business model is
leading it in the right direction (combining the system integration
and power generation businesses and diversifying into biogas
power) but the targets are ambitious and the company still lacks a
solid track record. We rate the stock a Hold.

1. INVESTMENT SUMMARY.............................................................3
2. MARKET TRENDS..........................................................................4
2.1. WIND..............................................................................................................................................................................................................4
2.1.1 Markets size and growth.................................................................................................................................................................................................4
2.1.2 Market structure............................................................................................................................................................................................................................5
2.1.3 Production factors......................................................................................................................................................................................................................6
2.1.4 Barriers to entry..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................6
2.1.5 New entrants....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7
2.1.6 Regulatory framework for renewable energies (ex solar power) ..................................................................7
2.1.7 Authorization process ......................................................................................................................................................................................................9
2.1.8 European regulatory framework.....................................................................................................................................................................10
2.2. PHOTOVOLTAIC.............................................................................................................................................................................11
2.2.1 Market size and growth..............................................................................................................................................................................................11
2.2.2 Market structure......................................................................................................................................................................................................................12
2.2.3 Suppliers...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................13
2.2.4 Barriers to entry........................................................................................................................................................................................................................13
2.2.5 New entrants.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................14
2.2.6 Regulatory framework....................................................................................................................................................................................................14
2.2.7 Authorization process ....................................................................................................................................................................................................15
2.3. BIOENERGY MARKET.................................................................................................................................................................16
2.3.1 Market size and growth..............................................................................................................................................................................................16
2.3.2 Factors of production: expensive.................................................................................................................................................................16
2.3.3 Suppliers...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................17
2.3.4 Barriers to entry........................................................................................................................................................................................................................17
2.3.5 New entrants.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................17
3. RELATIVE VALUATION..............................................................18
3.1. WIND........................................................................................................................................................................................................18
3.1.1 Peer comparison ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................18
3.1.2 Implicit valuation........................................................................................................................................................................................................................19
3.1.3 Share prices ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................20
3.2. PHOTOVOLTAIC.............................................................................................................................................................................21
3.2.1 Peer comparison ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................21
3.2.2 Share prices ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................22
ALERION……………………………………………...23
ERG RENEW………………………………………….38
ERGYCAPITAL……………………………………....53
TERNIENERGIA….………………………………….68

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